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#1
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![]() "Roger McDodger" wrote in message ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/cbbcnews/hi/fi...00/1575441.stm -- The usual propaganda, proving nothing. And from the BBC! |
#2
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![]() "Roger McDodger" wrote in message ... "Michael McKelvy" emitted : http://news.bbc.co.uk/cbbcnews/hi/fi...00/1575441.stm Try something based on facts: I was taking the ****, actually. Did you not notice the website is for kiddies LOL!? Of course I did, I didn't want to embarrass you by pointing it out, since it seems to be the level you work at. I note you couldn't resist but regurgitate half the contents of the internet back onto the newsgroupm. Very well done! That was just the first page by search engine brought up, there were at least 9 more. Try getting opposing views, you might learn something. Granted it's easier to swallow the pabulum the left wants you to swallow, but it usually is based on half truths at best. |
#3
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![]() "Michael McKelvy" wrote in message nk.net... "Roger McDodger" wrote in message ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/cbbcnews/hi/fi...00/1575441.stm Try something based on facts: Watch what happens if you type "Global Warming myths" into your search engine. It's pretty obvious that there is no proof. **No proof? Really? Try this site: http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwa...rtainties.html There are several things you should realise about this particular site: * It is up to date (not SEVEN YEARS out of date). * It is operated by the US government (the US government is run by George W Bush). * The information and conclusions are VERY conservative. The reality is thought to be far, far more serious. -- Trevor Wilson www.rageaudio.com.au |
#4
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![]() "Trevor Wilson" wrote in message ... "Michael McKelvy" wrote in message nk.net... "Roger McDodger" wrote in message ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/cbbcnews/hi/fi...00/1575441.stm Try something based on facts: Watch what happens if you type "Global Warming myths" into your search engine. It's pretty obvious that there is no proof. **No proof? Really? Try this site: http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwa...rtainties.html There are several things you should realise about this particular site: * It is up to date (not SEVEN YEARS out of date). Nothing has changed in 7 years. You have no idea when it was updated last. Like you , I don't beleive everything my government tells me, especially if it's at odds with science. * It is operated by the US government (the US government is run by George W Bush). * The information and conclusions are VERY conservative. The reality is thought to be far, far more serious. The reality is you don't bother to read any opposing information. The reality is that the atmosphere has cooled over the last 40 years. The reality is that the same information being used to prove global warming, was being used in the 70's to claim we;re heading for an ice age. The reality is the computer models sued to prove global warming are no better than random number generators. |
#5
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![]() "Trevor Wilson" wrote in message ... "Michael McKelvy" wrote in message nk.net... "Roger McDodger" wrote in message ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/cbbcnews/hi/fi...00/1575441.stm Try something based on facts: Watch what happens if you type "Global Warming myths" into your search engine. It's pretty obvious that there is no proof. **No proof? Really? Try this site: http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwa...rtainties.html There are several things you should realise about this particular site: * It is up to date (not SEVEN YEARS out of date). * It is operated by the US government (the US government is run by George W Bush). * The information and conclusions are VERY conservative. The reality is thought to be far, far more serious. -- More reality for you. Worlds apart Between the myth of global warming and the complex science of climate change. by Philip Stott In any discussion of climate change, it is essential to distinguish between the complex science of climate and the myth - in the sense of Roland Barthes, or the 'hybrid', following Bruno Latour - of 'global warming' (1). The latter is a politico-pseudoscientific construct, developed since the late 1980s, in which the human emission of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, is unquestioningly taken as the prime driver of a new and dramatic type of climate change that will result in a significant warming during the next 100 years and lead to catastrophe for both humanity and the Earth. This, in turn, has morphed since 1992 and the Rio Conference on the environment into a legitimizing myth for a gamut of interconnected political agendas - above all for a range of European sensibilities with regards to America, oil, the car, transport, economic growth, trade, and international corporations. The language employed tends to be authoritarian and religious in character, involving the use of what the physicist PH Borcherds has termed the 'hysterical subjunctive' (2). Indeed, for many, the myth has become an article of a secular faith that exhibits all the characteristics of a premodern religion, above all demanding sacrifice to the Earth. By contrast, the science of climate change starts from the principle that we are concerned with the most complex, non-linear, chaotic system known, and that it is distinctly unlikely that climate change can be predicted by reference to a single factor, however politically convenient that factor. Above all, in approaching the science, as distinct from the myth, it is necessary precisely to examine three questions. First, is the climate changing? The answer has to be: 'Of course it is.' Evidence throughout geological time indicates climate change at all scales and all times. Climate change is the norm, not the exception, and at any moment the Earth is either warming or cooling. If climate were ever to become stable, it would be a scientifically exciting phenomenon. To declare that 'the climate is changing' is therefore a truism. By contrast, the global warming myth harks back to a lost Golden Age of climate stability, or, to employ a more modern term, climate 'sustainability'. Sadly, the idea of a sustainable climate is an oxymoron. The fact that we have rediscovered climate change at the turn of the Millennium tells us more about ourselves, and about our devices and desires, than about climate. Opponents of global warming are often snidely referred to as 'climate change deniers'; precisely the opposite is true. Those who question the myth of global warming are passionate believers in climate change - it is the global warmers who deny that climate change is the norm. Secondly, do humans influence climate? Again, the answer is: 'Of course they do.' Hominids and humans have been affecting climate since they first manipulated fire to alter landscapes at least 750,000 years ago, but possibly as far back as two million years. Recent research has further implicated the development of agriculture, around 10,000 years ago, as an important human factor. Humans influence climate in many ways, through altering the albedo (the reflectivity) of the surface of the Earth, through changing the energy balance of the Earth, by emitting particles and aerosols, as well as by those hoary old favourites, industrial emissions. In Russia, global warming has been likened to Lysenkoism Here we encounter the second major difference between the science and the myth. In fact, human influences on climate are multi-factorial. Unfortunately, we know precious little about most of them. My own instinct is that our ability to change the reflectivity of the Earth's surface will, in the end, prove to have been far more important than industrial emissions. After all, if Lex Luthor covered the Tibetan High Plateau with black plastic sheeting, even Superman might have problems dealing with the monsoons. Thirdly, will we be able to produce predictable climate change, and a stable climate, by adjusting just one human variable, namely carbon dioxide emissions, out of the millions of factors, both natural and human, that drive climate? The answer is: '100 per cent, no.' This is the seminal point at which the complex science of climate diverges irreconcilably from the central beliefs of the global warming myth. The idea that we can manage climate predictably by minimal adjustments to our output of some politically selected gases is both naive and dangerous. The truth is the opposite. In a system as complex and chaotic as climate, such an action may even trigger unexpected consequences. It is vital to remember that, for a coupled, non-linear system, not doing something (ie, not emitting gases) is as unpredictable as doing something (ie, emitting gases). Even if we closed down every factory in the world, crushed every car and aeroplane, turned off all energy production, and threw four billion people worldwide out of work, climate would still change, and often dramatically. The only trouble is that we would all be too poor to be able to adapt to the changes, whatever their direction. Perhaps unsurprisingly, therefore, the myth is starting to implode. The conservationist and Green guru Professor David Bellamy has recently described the idea of global warming as 'poppycock'. Serious new research at the Max Planck Institute has indicated that the sun is likely to be a far more significant factor than emissions; Dr Bill Burrows, a climatologist and a member of the Royal Meteorological Society, has concluded: 'Perhaps we are devoting too many resources to correcting human effects on the climate without being sure that we are the major contributor.' The recent temperature 'spike', known as 'the hockey stick', has been unmasked as a statistical artefact, while the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age have been statistically rediscovered. Moreover, the latest research has shown that there has probably been no real warming, except that which is surface-driven. And in Russia, global warming has been likened to Lysenkoism - a notorious episode in Soviet science featuring a non-scientific peasant plant-breeder, named Trofim Denisovich Lysenko (1898-1976), who became the leading proponent of Michurianism during the Lenin/Stalin years. IV Michurin was, in turn, a proponent of Lamarckism, from Lamarck, the scientist who argued for a now largely discredited theory of evolution. Accordingly, the predication of government, and United Nations', policy for energy growth on the unsustainable myth of global warming is a serious threat to us all, but especially to the 1.6billion people in the less-developed world who have no access to any modern form of energy. The twin curses of water poverty and energy poverty remain the real scandals. By contrast, the political imposition on the rest of the world of our Northern, self-indulgent ecochondria about global warming could prove to be a neocolonialism too far. Philip Stott is professor emeritus of biogeography in the University of London, and blogs at EnviroSpin Watch. |
#6
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![]() "Trevor Wilson" wrote in message ... "Michael McKelvy" wrote in message nk.net... "Roger McDodger" wrote in message ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/cbbcnews/hi/fi...00/1575441.stm Try something based on facts: Watch what happens if you type "Global Warming myths" into your search engine. It's pretty obvious that there is no proof. **No proof? Really? Try this site: http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwa...rtainties.html There are several things you should realise about this particular site: * It is up to date (not SEVEN YEARS out of date). * It is operated by the US government (the US government is run by George W Bush). * The information and conclusions are VERY conservative. The reality is thought to be far, far more serious. Not by meteorologists who are the real experts. -- Global Warming is not Scientific Is Global warming a scientific theory or a belief? There are many claiming to be "client scientists", yet (for some strange reason) they don't realize that statistics is not science. Science requires an experimental control. Statistics often provides a scientist a good idea for a hypothesis, but correlations do not prove cause and effect. Furthermore, a computer models are not an experiments in that they again can not discriminate theories into true and false. (They may give one an idea where to poke around, but to claim they "prove" anything is pure fiction and should lead one to discount the source.) Some things are unknowable. It is human nature not to accept that some things are beyond reach of knowing, but it is often the case. New - http://www.multi-science.co.uk/mcintyre_02.pdf shows more of the same pattern of possibly fudged data. The much hyped report from the EPA was made by people who's income depends on the continued belief of a CO2 caused warming trend. What do people who do not depend on there being a "global warming" problem say? The meteorologists I've met (that don't have a political or economic ax-to-grind), say that the only thing they have seen that is close to a proven theory is that global temperature tracks solar output. As scientists, they are careful to note that one should really wait a few more solar cycles before even taking that to heart. To infer a connection between man emissions of CO2 and warming is not an easy jump for the scientifically minded a.. First, you have to prove that the increase in CO2 is caused by humans - the venting of CO2 by volcanoes and geysers and other natural sources (and also the natural absorption or sinking of CO2) is a estimate that defies error analysis. b.. Second, the elevation of CO2 needs to be shown to be historically real, but there were no analytical tools to measure even crudely thousands of years ago - the best work has been done with ice samples, but there is a great problem with how to calibrate such measurements. What size should the error bands be? c.. Third, there has to be a model that can predict the past (only then can we start guessing about the future) including the temperatures in the upper atmosphere. Any model that can't fit past data has to be called wrong. d.. Fourth, as this is an open system where we can't build several earths and vary only one constant, any conclusion at best is still just a theory - a educated guess - it is not scientific fact. Science is more than looking scientific, just because things are measured to several decimal points it means naught when there is no control or false logic. e.. Fifth, to look at the past temperatures honestly, one would have to show no past periods of higher temperature. (The above paper pokes a big hole in that one. The idea that we know the inferred data is simply wrong.) We don't have accurate records of solar output from the past and we don't know long term historic variations that are possible. Explaining the small drift (less than what appears to be the noise in the system) is much better accomplished with a solar output theory - yet even this theory fails to be more than a theory for those who seeking the truth. See http://web.dmi.dk/solar-terrestrial/space_weather/ f.. Six, one really has to subtract the effects of variations of solar output, and changes in land use (irrigation) from any temperature trends. There are no antiquate models to do this with at this time. All six of the above points remain serious problems I remember reading a news article when I was in 5th or 6th grade by "scientists" that predicted that we were going into a new ice age because of man made pollution. I thought it was true and worried about it for years - and followed every global climate article I got my hands on - until I realized they didn't have any way to truly support the claims they were making. Some of these same people are in the global warming business now. Supporters of global Warming will say, "I've know of hundreds of scientists with diverse political backgrounds (from all over the world) that have come to the same conclusion", but taking polls on the opinion of people who's income is tied to the existence of a problem is not science. A poll of the best scientists of the year 1400 would have put the earth rather than the sun at the center of our solar system. There is a quite different out come from poll of other scientists about global warming, see http://www.oism.org/pproject/index.htm A politically popular opinion doesn't make it correct. Neither poll has anything to do with science Supporters will further say, "Many of these scientists are established, world-renowned, tenured professors who do research in numerous areas and whose jobs are certainly not dependent on the existence of global warming". But let us consider the peers of Copernicus; did their being "established, world-renowned, tenured professors" make them right? What would Richard Feynman say about Global warming? For those of you who don't know, Richard Feynman was the physicist who was not only closely associated with QED (Quantum Electro Dynamics), but also wrote about the scientific method and scientific rigor. I first ask you to read his bit about cargo cult science. Pay close attention for the part about the oil drop numbers - and realize that it applies here. When a hypothesis fails to explain the given data, it follows that it must be abandoned. Non of the models I've read about can explain the lack of elevated temperatures at higher elevation. Feynman also became a bit of an artist on the side. This is important because drawing depends more on being a good honest observer than on talent. If you draw a picture and notice that the chin isn't where it belongs, it is easier to overlook after one starts inking over the pencil lines. What makes art art, is the way that it looks that isn't in the subject. It tells us as much about the artist as it does the subject. The way slight distortions are adjusted and blended in. Being a real scientist means we have to bend over backwards in order to find our human distortions of the object we are trying to draw conclusions about. This takes honesty and courage to report all warts and wrinkles in the subject. I am told that, "... meteorologists I know that are skeptical about global warming are weather forecasters (not researchers) and have little expertise in the science of climate change -- their jobs do not require it." Well if changing weather isn't climate change what is it? Meteorologists are trained to look at numbers trends and graphs and form conclusions about the probability of future events. They know that seeing patterns in data can be the playground of fools (are there any fool-proof computer programs that accurately predict the stock market?) More importantly meteorologist's experience has taught them to be very careful about making claims about the future with limited data. Perhaps this experience has given them a better feel for what is knowable than the global climate researchers? The "science of climate change" has been quite wrong before when they were predicting a "new Ice age". Real science requires something that is beyond the combinations of a bunch of estimates plugged into human choice tainted computer models. Correlation does not show cause and effect - Limitations on what is knowable The idea that because CO2 has gone up and surface temperatures have also gone up means nothing. It is a correlation only in the sense that both variables are headed in the same direction. A similar correlation exists between CO2 and breast cancer. There is no cyclic variable in the global warming studies. If CO2 had gone up and down 4 times and ground temperature had followed - that could be interesting - but would only start to mean something after 10 to 100 cycles. If CO2 had gone up and down several times and global temperatures had followed there would be a meaningful correlation, yet that would still fail to show cause and effect. We've been told that "The atmospheric levels of CO2 have risen 30% since the Industrial Revolution (~1780) and 18% since 1959". Yes, CO2 has increased, and probably from man, but even that can not be shown conclusively. In an open system It is entirely possible that other variations of natural CO2 sources and sinks may be more responsible. There could be natural sources of CO2 that have not been identified. In an open system, there is no control of other variables, thus what we can know is quite limited. Atmospheric CO2 has (if I remember right) gone up fabout 60 ppm to 360 ppm (not much at all compared to the greenhouse gas, water vapor, which averages 25,000ppm). Realize that we are talking about a change of 0.03% to 0.036% or 0.006%. The global warmers don't use these numbers instead they say it increased 30% (for maximum rhetorical effect?). Over the same periods specific humidity has increased several percent (possibly due to irrigation?) see http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/079.htm. Both CO2 and water vapor have similar emissivity so that any change in greenhouse effect due to CO2 would seem to be swamped by the effect of water vapor. This would also seem to explain the change at lower altitudes with out effecting the upper atmosphere.. Atmospheric CO2 may have an effect, but there is no proof that man's contribution as a source of CO2 (ESTIMATED at about 4%) is the reason it is going up. It is entirely possible that it is going up due to natural variation more than mans contribution - probably not - but the point is that even this is not a scientific fact. I would guess it is probable. (BTW I think we should be taxing oil imports (in place of income taxes) for other reasons.) Low altitude warming has not been established as anything historically out of the ordinary. The data just isn't there to do this. At this time and into the foreseeable future it is unknowable. Being unknowable is the heart of the problem with "climate science". "Climate science" is not really science. In real sciences the scientists first job is to prove himself wrong - that is to list the numerous way that the results my be in error and how the conclusions are limited. No forthright "bending over backwards" efforts are made by the global warming proponents. Instead, there are efforts to state things in emotional terms and a disturbing pattern of data errors that when corrected always move in the same direction. (One would expect honest errors to tend to cancel out over time.) When claims are made dealing with an open system using correlations of data without knowable error bands, it fails to be science. There is no way to separate out the increased use of irrigation and the resulting increase of low altitude water vapor (very much a green house gas). I've seen no numbers on historical global low altitude humidity that could be a plausible competing theory. The correlation of temperature and variations of solar output is ignored. Good enough data may never be available; thus just not knowable. Opinions on things unknowable are called beliefs Because of the inapplicability of the scientific method when dealing with open systems, opinions on global warming are beliefs in the realm of a sort of religious view and not even close to scientific fact. Open systems, like the stock market are the subject of randomness - and much has been written about the "black swan" effect and the inability of professional stock pickers to come out ahead of amateurs in the long term. To infer a long term trend in what appears to be mostly noise - or randomness is a game of chance at best. All that can possibly be determined are floors of probability in an open system, and even those can be misleading. I failed to see even an estimate of the amount of error of natural emissions of CO2 in the documentation from the EPA. The science I know of means you figure the answer and then you do the hard part of calculating the minimum, maximum, and probable errors. It is not possible in this case to even have the real numbers of CO2 venting - thus we are again not looking at science, but only speculation with numbers attached. We are told that, "Carbon dioxide is measured directly at Mauna Loa in Hawaii", but it is only one place and really an estimate and not a direct measurement (can you imagine a pipe being installed to provide a calibrate-able flow meter?) as are almost all of the numbers used in this "science". That is why the satellite data is so important - it is the best data available, has no micro-climate artifacts. The satellite data is the only data that comes close to measuring anything that could be called global temperature and not effected by microclimate and would be most difficult to fudge. According to http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/MSU/msusci.html the earth as a whole seems to be cooling slightly. But do you know what I see in that data? (And I'm really good at looking at statistics) - NOTHING! Just some noise - noise that is higher than any possible trend. You could pick selected start and end points to show either cooling or warming. Take the long term temperature trends and track them with solar output and there is a fairly good correlation. (I have seen this data but can't find the graph now - if you have it please send it thisway?) Will the new solar activity of Oct/Nov 2003 change solar output and cause cooling? What are you willing to bet on it? Nothing? Ahh, so at least you know what you don't know. Should we bet the future of a hydrocarbon based economy? To claim as a "fact" something from a trend who's amplitude (and direction) can be changed by changing end points due to the noise involved not science; it is politics. Are the data and/or computer models tainted due to subconscious intentions? Everyone has an agenda at some level. I assuming that you, the reader, is not influenced by the popularity of the idea of Global warming and you have really looked at the raw data yourself and made sure that no one was hand picking start and endpoints of data sets and that non of these people worried (even subconsciously) that if they failed to show the right result they would fail to get new funding. It is interesting that the only corrections I have seen with the global warming proponents have lessened the effect. Were the errors reported in "Energy and Environment" 11/03 the result of fudging the numbers? I hope not, but they very well could have been from a subconscious hope. A scientist's first job is to prove himself wrong. That isn't the way I see this work approached Let me illustrate: QED (Quantum Electro Dynamics) is real science. The theory was put in place and then controlled experiments were run against it - the theory wasn't changed every time someone came out with a new test. This is what real science is about. With global warming you have a computer model of the largest physical system on earth that has several uncontrolled inputs with huge error bands that can interact in non linear ways. The model is simplified in many ways because of the limits of computer power. You have emotional humans that decide on just what compromises to make - and these choices can greatly skew the results. Just the shear number of terms makes the output dubious at best. I do believe that there are people writing global warming papers who just don't understand the true nature of scientific induction and deduction and are just honestly wrong. My work with electronic circuits modeled on computers has convinced me that even the most honest scientists are quite susceptible to subconsciously tailoring computer models to provide the results one wants (I've fooled myself), (and electronics models are much simpler and easier to test in the closed system of a test bench). Yet these models are the basis for claims that would completely change the world economy? This "bending over backward" that Feynman talks about is what is missing from the global warming work. The EPA's reference even lists Santer, who's 1996 Nature article using a data set with fudged endpoints. To make these claims without real science behind it also raises a moral problem as the unintended consequences may be harsh on the poor people of non developed countries. I truly wish Richard Feynman was alive to day to comment on the scientific vigor in global warming. Research can often look like science, yet fail to be real science in the end. It's been a disappointing summer for global warming alarmists. Hollywood, Mother Nature and the media just haven't cooperated. Even with the unusual situation of two successive hurricanes pounding Florida and another bearing down imminently, global warming hysteria seems to be on ice for now. The summer began with so much promise for the climate control crowd with the release of the global warming disaster movie, "The Day After Tomorrow." While the movie made plenty of money, global warming activists wanted much more than that. They hoped the movie would foment global warming hysteria in the same way that "The China Syndrome" and "Silkwood" contributed to public sentiment against nuclear power plants. Instead, the movie was so over-the-top with implausible weather phenomena that no one - not even the usually global warming-sympathetic media - took it seriously. Then, unlike the movie, the real "day after tomorrow" turned out to be pretty nice. Across the U.S., summer temperatures were cooler than normal. Aberdeen, S.D., experienced its coolest August in 115 years with an average temperature seven degrees below normal (63.4 vs. 70.5). |
#7
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![]() "Michael McKelvy" wrote in message nk.net... "Trevor Wilson" wrote in message ... "Michael McKelvy" wrote in message nk.net... "Roger McDodger" wrote in message ... http://news.bbc.co.uk/cbbcnews/hi/fi...00/1575441.stm Try something based on facts: Watch what happens if you type "Global Warming myths" into your search engine. It's pretty obvious that there is no proof. **No proof? Really? Try this site: http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwa...rtainties.html There are several things you should realise about this particular site: * It is up to date (not SEVEN YEARS out of date). Nothing has changed in 7 years. **Of course things have changed in 7 years. The planet has warmed. You have no idea when it was updated last. **You are quoting information from 1997. Like you , I don't beleive everything my government tells me, especially if it's at odds with science. **Good thing too. Why do you ignore the actual real science and prefer to quote non-science sources? * It is operated by the US government (the US government is run by George W Bush). * The information and conclusions are VERY conservative. The reality is thought to be far, far more serious. The reality is you don't bother to read any opposing information. **Of course I do. None of it is backed by real science though. All of it is backed by alternate political agendas. None can adequately explain the rising temperatures in the Polar regions. None can explain the shinking ice caps in these regions. The reality is that the atmosphere has cooled over the last 40 years. **Wrong and the real worry are the rising land and sea temperatures. The reality is that the same information being used to prove global warming, **The reality is the Global Warming IS a reality. was being used in the 70's to claim we;re heading for an ice age. **Global Warming was already being mooted back in the 1970s. The reality is the computer models sued to prove global warming are no better than random number generators. **Global Warming IS occurring. The actual MEASUREMENTS show this to be the case. Computer modelling is used to show what MIGHT happen if GW continues at the same pace. -- Trevor Wilson www.rageaudio.com.au |
#8
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"Trevor Wilson" said:
**Global Warming IS occurring. The actual MEASUREMENTS show this to be the case. Computer modelling is used to show what MIGHT happen if GW continues at the same pace. Better make that the entire western world, including me and my gas-guzzling CX ....... -- Sander de Waal " SOA of a KT88? Sufficient. " |
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