"Ruud Broens" wrote in message
...

"Shhhh! I'm Listening to Reason!" wrote in message
ups.com...
: From: "Ruud Broens"
: Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 17:35:35 +0100
:
: like Oppenheimer said:
: "Arguing over whether man-made global warming exists
: obscures a more important debate over what steps
: are possible to moderate its effects"
:
: Rudy, after reading the realclimate site, do you get ANY indication
: that they are in favor of statements like these?
:
: "There is no man made global warming.
: The Ice caps are not doing anything unusual.
: The eco terrorists won't get you to do anything if they don't scare
: you."
:
: I don't see it, but maybe I'm nuts.

These are all proxies, measured heat balance makes warming a fact.
Several historical proxies exist, where overlapping in period good
correspondence of data from strata, ice core air inclusions, lake
sediments, tree yearrings, etc, etc. is observed. this inspires
confidence in the modeled temperatures, recorded history is very
short of course :-)
so, if the ice air inclusion for period X shows a near-sulphates free,
low CO2 atmosphere, some other indicator says sunspot activity
is low, calculating the earth's rotational axis direction for X,
if the model shows: "ice age, minus 22 to 38 centigrade at location
Y" it'd be somewhat embarrassing to find in the geological strata
there, say, palm tree seeds :-)

so we have temperature-by-proxy graphs that tell us it has been
all over the map, historically,
air composition over a huge timespan known
pretty much the same story

'single shot' events such as impacting 5 km diameter stuff
has drastic effects, not easily modeled

so nature made climatic change can be rather large
but we may assume the cro-magnon had better stuff to do than
keep temperature records, so not much recorded by humans,
yet.

it is the rate of change presently that - other than in cataclysmic
periods- has no historical equivalent
err..
;-)
Rudy

The most relaiable data shows that there is no big change in mean temprature
and that what there is happend before in the 1940's.