"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...
"Sockpuppet Yustabe" wrote in message

"ScottW" wrote in message
news:YBpHb.42107$m83.34259@fed1read01...

"Sockpuppet Yustabe" wrote in message
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"ScottW" wrote in message
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"Sockpuppet Yustabe" wrote in message
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"normanstrong" wrote in message
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"Scott Gardner" wrote in message
...
Does anyone know the general equation that tells you how many
trials a subject must complete successfully to achieve a
desired certainty that the results weren't from guessing?

In other words, for "N" trials, what number "M" of them must the
subject complete successfully to be "X" percent sure the results
weren't from guessing?

If the probability of guessing right in a single trial is 50%,
and there are 10 trials, the chance of getting all of them right
is 1
in
1024 (1/2^10).

If you allow for 1 mistake, your chances are improved about 10
times
(1.1%)

2 mistakes improve the odds another 5 times (5.5%) This is as
far
as
I would go.

Another interesting question is: How many times do you have to
do this test before you have an even up chance of correctly
guessing
8
out of 10 tries? The answer is 12 times. IOW, if 12 people try
to
get 8 out of 10 right, half the time at least one will
succeed--by luck alone.

you are ready to dive into a cesspool of fallacy.
let me blow the whistle. GO!

I'll bite, what is the fallacy?

ScottW



he didn't make it yet, but I thought he
might infer that if such an event happened, the one
person would have been a lucky guesser.

I know that there are further circumstances
that might bear light on that, but Norm mentioned
a hypothetical that didn't include any further
listening by that one particular individual.

not that any of this matters in the 'real' world.

Thats easy enough to determine. Let that one person
take the test a few times. It will quickly become clear
if they are "golden ear" or just lucky.

ScottW


...or have their brains numbed by continual testing.

Doesn't have to be continual, Brain Trust!



Instead of wasting one day of your life, you are now
free to waste seven of them. All for the
equivalent of finding out if Heinz ketchup tastes
better than Hunt's. We don't do this for
other lifestyle choices, there is no need to do it
for audio




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