dave weil wrote in message . ..
On 21 Dec 2003 06:47:07 -0800, (pyjamarama)
wrote:
The economy is growing at a rate not seen since the Reagan
administration;
I'd like to know where you guys are getting this stuff. Can you cite
figures?
Will this do?
U.S. economic growth revised up
GDP grew at a blistering 8.2 percent pace in the third quarter, faster
than originally thought.
November 25, 2003: 10:47 AM EST
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter at
an even faster pace than originally reported, the government said
Tuesday.
Gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic
activity, grew at an 8.2 percent annual rate, the fastest pace since
the first quarter of 1984, after growing at a 3.3 percent pace in the
second quarter, the Commerce Department reported.
Originally, GDP growth was reported at a 7.2 percent annual rate.
Economists, on average, expected the reported growth rate to be
revised to 7.6 percent, according to Briefing.com.
The report had little positive impact on Wall Street, which had widely
expected the strong report. U.S. stock prices were little changed in
early trading, while Treasury bond prices rose.
One key reason for the large upward revision in third-quarter GDP was
a re-evaluation of the rate of change in business inventories in the
quarter. Originally, the government said businesses cut inventories by
$35.8 billion in the quarter, but that figure was trimmed to $14.1
billion in the latest report.
The lower rate of shelf-clearing in the third quarter could mean the
economy will get less of a boost from re-stocking in the fourth
quarter than some economists had hoped.
"The bottom line is that Wall Street will have to shave off some of
its overly exuberant fourth-quarter real GDP estimates," said Anthony
Chan, chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors.
Third-quarter growth was also boosted by a 6.4 percent pace of growth
in consumer spending, the strongest pace since the third quarter of
1997, after growing at a 3.8 percent rate in the second quarter.
Consumer spending growth was originally reported as 6.6 percent.
Much of the strength in consumer spending in the third quarter was due
to a 26.5 percent rate of growth in the sale of durable goods, items
meant to last three years or more, and much of that came in sales of
motor vehicles and parts.
It was the strongest performance for durable goods sales since the
fourth quarter of 2001, when sales jumped at a 33.6 percent pace. Auto
sales have slowed down during the fourth quarter, however.
Consumers got a boost in the late summer and early fall from child tax
credit rebate checks and from the tail end of a boom in mortgage
refinancing. Cash-out refinancing cut homeowners' monthly payments and
put more cash in their pockets, and parents got an extra cash infusion
from rebate checks.
Those effects have mostly dissipated in the fourth quarter, however,
leading most economists to believe consumer spending will slow.
Unsurprisingly, home sales soared in the third quarter, with
residential investment up at a 22.7 percent annual pace, the strongest
pace since the first quarter of 1992, compared with 6.6 percent in the
second quarter.
Nonresidential fixed investment rose at a 14 percent rate, the fastest
pace since the first quarter of 2000, following the second quarter's
7.3 percent pace, a sign of further strength in business spending.
Investment in equipment and software rose 18.4 percent, the fastest
pace since the fourth quarter of 1998 and more than double the prior
quarter's pace of 8.3 percent.