Sandman
March 9th 04, 10:51 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/09/opinion/09KRUG.html
Promises, Promises
Sources: Bureau of Labor Studies; Economic Reports of the President, 2002,
2003 and 2004.
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: March 9, 2004
Despite a string of dismal employment reports, the administration insists
that its economic program, which has relied entirely on tax cuts focused on
the affluent, will produce big job gains any day now. Should we believe
these promises?
Each February, the Economic Report of the President forecasts nonfarm
payroll employment - generally considered the best measure of job growth -
for the next several years. The black line in the chart above (inspired by a
joint report from the Economic Policy Institute and the Center on Budget and
Policy Priorities) shows the actual performance of employment, both before
and after its peak in March 2001. The gray lines show the forecasts in the
2002, 2003 and 2004 reports. Notice that the February 2004 forecast, which,
as in previous years, is based on data only through the preceding October,
is already 900,000 jobs too high.
Economic forecasting isn't an exact science, but wishful thinking on this
scale is unprecedented. Nor can the administration use its all-purpose
excuse: all of these forecasts date from after 9/11. What you see in this
chart is the signature of a corrupted policy process, in which political
propaganda takes the place of professional analysis.
*** check out the dramatic graph in the article itself at the above link.
It demonstrates dramatically the real truth behind all of Bush's lies about
the economy during his administration.
Promises, Promises
Sources: Bureau of Labor Studies; Economic Reports of the President, 2002,
2003 and 2004.
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: March 9, 2004
Despite a string of dismal employment reports, the administration insists
that its economic program, which has relied entirely on tax cuts focused on
the affluent, will produce big job gains any day now. Should we believe
these promises?
Each February, the Economic Report of the President forecasts nonfarm
payroll employment - generally considered the best measure of job growth -
for the next several years. The black line in the chart above (inspired by a
joint report from the Economic Policy Institute and the Center on Budget and
Policy Priorities) shows the actual performance of employment, both before
and after its peak in March 2001. The gray lines show the forecasts in the
2002, 2003 and 2004 reports. Notice that the February 2004 forecast, which,
as in previous years, is based on data only through the preceding October,
is already 900,000 jobs too high.
Economic forecasting isn't an exact science, but wishful thinking on this
scale is unprecedented. Nor can the administration use its all-purpose
excuse: all of these forecasts date from after 9/11. What you see in this
chart is the signature of a corrupted policy process, in which political
propaganda takes the place of professional analysis.
*** check out the dramatic graph in the article itself at the above link.
It demonstrates dramatically the real truth behind all of Bush's lies about
the economy during his administration.