May 21st 09, 05:26 AM
Race Differences, Immigration, And The Twilight of the European
Peoples (Lecture,2006)
By Richard Lynn
>> "I want to examine the changing nature of Britishness resulting from the immigration non-Europeans, particularly in the light of IQ differences between immigrants and the native white population. My approach differs from current debates about immigration which are normally concentrated on whether it is good or bad for Britain, and whether we need more of it or less, and not on the quality of the immigrants or their racial identity.
Race And IQ
In my recent review of the research on race differences in
intelligence that has been carried out over the last eighty years I
have set the British IQ at 100 and shown that other Europeans have the
same average IQ, except in the Balkans where it drops to around 93.
Outside of Europe, the East Asians (Chinese, Japanese and Koreans)
have the highest mean IQ at 105. The South Asians and North Africans
have an average IQ of 84, the Caribbeans an IQ of 71, and the blacks
of sub-Saharan African an IQ of 67.
These racial IQs appear to be about fifty per cent genetically
determined and about fifty per cent environmentally determined. This
means that when these peoples migrate to Britain they enter a much
better environment, particularly as regards nutrition, health care and
education, so their IQs increase by about fifty per cent. Thus the IQs
of South Asians and North Africans increase to around 92, while the
IQs of Caribbeans and African blacks increase to around 86.
The low IQ of blacks was been understood from everyday observation
long before it became established by intelligence tests. For instance,
in the eighteenth century David Hume wrote that "I am apt to suspect
that Negroes are naturally inferior to whites. There is no ingenious
manufacture amongst them, no arts, no sciences". The first explorers
of Africa reached the same conclusion. Mungo Park, who visited west
Africa in 1795 and made his way up the Gambia and Niger rivers, noted
that the African peoples had no written language and little that could
be described as civilisation. He described the Africans as living in
"small and incommodious hovels: a circular mud wall about four feet
high, upon which is placed a conical roof, composed of bamboo cane,
and thatched with grass, forms alike the palace of the king and the
hovel of the slave".
The explanation for these race differences in intelligence that has
become widely accepted is that humans evolved in equatorial East
Africa. About 100,000 years ago some groups migrated northwards into
North Africa and then into Asia and Europe. These groups encountered a
more challenging environment in which there were no plant or insect
foods for much of the year, so they had to hunt large animals like
mammoths to obtain their food. They also had to keep warm and for this
they needed to make clothes and shelters. These problems became much
greater in the last ice age that began about 28,000 years ago and
lasted until about 11,000 years ago. All these challenges required
higher intelligence. Only the more intelligent were able to survive in
these harsh environments while the less intelligent perished. One
result of this was that the brain size of the European and East Asian
peoples increased to accommodate the greater intelligence required to
overcome these problems.
These racial differences in intelligence are one of the most
important reasons for the differences in the wealth and poverty of
nations that are present throughout the world (the other main reason
being the presence of a market economy or of some form of socialism or
communism). Intelligence is a major determinant of competence and
earning capacity, so inevitably the European and Far Eastern peoples
whose populations are intelligent achieve higher standards of living
than other peoples who are less intelligent.
This is often called the North-South divide, consisting of the rich
north of Europe, North America and Japan, and the poor south
consisting of South Asian, Africa and Latin America, but this is just
a euphemism for the rich European and Far Eastern peoples who happen
to live mainly in the northern hemisphere and the poor South Asians,
Africans and Latin Americans who live in the south. These differences
in wealth are largely caused by racial differences in intelligence.
Because of this the idea that they can be eliminated and that we can
"make poverty history" by writing off debts and providing more aid is
doomed to failure.
When non-European peoples migrate to Europe and North America their
lower IQs make it difficult for them to cope in economically developed
societies. The effect of race differences in IQ on the ability to cope
was shown for the United States by Richard Herrnstein and Charles
Murray in their book The Bell Curve. Here they showed that blacks with
an average IQ of 85 perform poorly in education and earnings, while
they have high rates of crime, welfare dependency and unemployment.
Hispanics with a somewhat higher average IQ (typically found to be
about 89) do somewhat better, while whites and Asians ("the model
minority") do best.
Similar racial differences have been found in Britain. The Chinese
East Asians perform best in educational attainment and have the lowest
percentage of school exclusions and crime. The native British come
next, followed by the South Asians from the Indian sub-Continent,
while the blacks perform worst. We see this for educational attainment
in A levels in Table 1 (the scores are calculated by counting A grades
as 10, B grades as 8, etc. and are published by the Department for
Education and Skills). [Vdare.com note: A Levels are the British
equivalent of American Advanced Placement courses.]
It will be noted that the Indians do better than the Pakistanis and
Bangladeshis. The main reasons for this are that the Indians have been
longer established in Britain while the Pakistanis and Bangladeshis
are more recent immigrants, and that the Indians are a more selected
group.
Both groups of Blacks from the Caribbean and Africa do much the
worst.
Table 1. A level scores, 1996-2000
Group
A level score
Chinese
16.8
Whites
13.8
Indians
11.3
Pakistani/ Bangladeshi
6.4
Africans
2.8
Caribbeans
1.7
Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray’s demonstration in The Bell
Curve that in the United States racial IQs are related to crime rates
is equally true in Britain. Table 2 shows the U.K. Home Office figures
for the crime rates whites, Chinese, South Asians and Blacks. These
statistics are for men in prison in relation to their numbers in the
population and are expressed as odds ratios in which the white rate is
set at 1.0 and the rates of the other groups are expressed as
multiples of this. Thus the Chinese rate is 0.7 of the white rate,
while the South Asian rate is 1.3 times the white rate, and the Black
rate is 8.1 times the white rate.
These race differences in crime are well known to authorities in this
field. For instance, Professor Sir Michael Rutter writes that "there
are substantial differences in the rates of crime among ethnic
groups", although he goes on to say that "these differences are
exaggerated by small (but cumulative) biases in the ways in which
judicial processing takes place…" .
This implies that racial prejudice in the police and judicial system
are partly responsible, although Sir Michael does not offer any
explanation for why the South Asian crime rate is only marginally
higher than the white, or for the much lower crime rate of the
Chinese.
Table 2. Crime rates (Men)
Group
Crime: Odds ratios
Whites
1.0
Chinese
0.7
South Asians
1.3
Blacks
8.1
[Home Office. Statistics on Race and the Criminal Justice System.
London: Home , 1998 PDF]
Blacks also have much higher crime rates than Whites in the United
States, and also in the Caribbean and South Africa. High rates of
crime seem to be a universal characteristic of Blacks.
There appear to be three reasons why racial IQs are related to crime
rates.
* First, those with low IQs are less able to understand the
adverse cost of being caught and punished.
* Second, boys with low IQs do badly at school and typically live
with others who also do badly at school. As a result the whole
subculture becomes alienated from school and society and sees little
prospect of earning a good living by gainful employment. Crime seems
to offer an attractive alternative. Alienation from school leads to
disruptive behaviour that eventually leads to expulsion or exclusion.
Thus the race differences in school exclusions published by the
Department for Education and Skills are similar to those in IQ,
educational attainment and crime. Figures for recent years are shown
in Table 3. We see here that Chinese are only excluded at one-fifth
the rate of whites. The South Asian exclusion rate is about the same,
while the Black rate is 4.4 times greater.
Table 3. School exclusions
School exclusions
Odds ratios
Whites
1.0
Chinese
0.2
South Asians
0.9
Blacks
4.4
* A third reason for the high rates of crime and school exclusions
of Blacks seems to be that, in addition to their low IQ, Blacks have
short time horizons such that they do not look ahead at the likely
future consequences of their actions.
This characteristic has frequently been noted. For instance, John
Speke who explored East Africa in the 1860s and discovered the source
of the Nile, described the typical African as "a creature of impulse –
a grown child".
At about the same time Anthony Trollope, the British novelist, visited
the Caribbean and wrote up his impressions in his book The West Indies
and the Spanish Main. Here he described the characteristics of the
Blacks, Whites, Chinese, Indians and Mulattos, and wrote of the Blacks
that "they have no care for tomorrow, but they delight in being gaudy
for today. Their crimes are those of momentary impulse".
Immigration Into The White World
The numbers of non-Europeans in Britain have been growing steadily
since the British Nationality Act of 1948 conferred the right of
citizenship and abode on all members of the British Commonwealth and
Empire.
This trend is shown in Table 4 taken from the census returns of 1951,
1961, 1971 and 2001, and projected forward in time to 2031 and 2061.
We see that the non-European population increased around ten fold from
1961 to 2001, and about 4.5 fold from 1971 to 2001. The projections
extrapolate the 4.5 fold increase over the 30 year period from 1971 to
2001 forward to 2031 and again to 2061. We see that the numbers of non-
Europeans are projected to reach around 15.5 million by 2031 and 70
mi1lion in 2061.
Over the same period the numbers of white can be projected to decline
because whites have approximately 1.6 children per couple. The effect
of this is likely to be that the numbers of whites will decline from
around 55 million in 2001 to around 34 million in 2061. Hence by 2061
about two thirds of the population of Britain will be of non-European
origin, while about one third will be white.
Table 4. The numbers of non-Europeans in Britain
Year
Non-Europeans
1951
138,000
1961
360,000
1971
751,000
2001
3,450,000
2031
15,550,000
2061
69,862,000
These projections are "guesstimates" – reasonable or perhaps not so
reasonable guesses about what the future may bring - and perhaps some
people will say that this could not possibly happen.
But why not? There is little reason to suppose that the principal
factors responsible for the growth in the numbers of non-Europeans in
Britain is likely to change.
Consider the reasons for growth of non-European population.
* First, they are entering Britain as asylum seekers and this is
likely to continue.
The number of asylum seekers from Africa in 1981 was 108,000. By 2001,
it was 480,000, an increase of more than fourfold over a period of
only 20 years. As word spreads through Africa that entry to Britain is
easy and life much better than in Africa, the numbers are likely to
increase further. Most asylum seekers are refused asylum, but very few
are actually deported. This is because of the problems of finding them
and when they are found they often refuse to disclose where they have
come from, so it is not possible to deport them.
* Second, many non-Europeans enter Britain as illegal immigrants
in the backs of lorries, on the Eurostar [The train through the
Channel Tunnel] or hidden as stowaways in ships.
Once they are in Britain they have little difficulty in finding
somewhere to live, often provided by local authorities, and they
either find work or obtain social security unemployment payments. This
also is very difficult to stop.
* Third, many enter Britain legally as visitors and students, and
stay on indefinitely.
* Fourth, many more enter Britain legally through arranged
marriages.
This is especially common among the Pakistanis and Bangladeshis, more
than half of whom marry spouses from their home country and bring
their spouses to Britain. Other illegals simply pay someone to go
through a marriage ceremony with a British national through which they
acquire citizenship.
* Fifth, non-Europeans (except for the Chinese) have more children
than whites.
The numbers of children of various immigrant groups found in the 2001
census are shown in Table 5. It will be seen that the white fertility
rate is 1.6 children per woman, while blacks and the Indians have
about 30 percent more children than whites at 2.2 and 2.3. The
Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Somalis have 5.0, more than three times
the number of children as whites.
The higher fertility of non-Europeans tends to decline in the second
and third generations but not to the low level of whites.
All of these five causes of the growth of the growth in the numbers of
non-Europeans in Britain would be very difficult to stop or even to
reduce.
The problem lies in the nature of democracy. In democracies,
politicians think short term. Their objective is to win an election in
two, three or maybe four years’ time. Politicians cannot afford to
antagonize minorities with votes for the sake of long term benefits
for the nation.
Immigrant minorities want more immigration of people like themselves.
When the immigrant vote becomes sizable, politicians can no longer
afford to antagonize it. This point has been reached in Britain, where
the new compassionate Conservative Party no longer puts the control of
immigration among its priorities. It has likewise been reached in
Western Europe and the United States. Theoretically immigration could
be stopped but the cost in terms of votes, the opposition of a largely
liberal media and the likelihood of civil unrest among immigrant
communities has become too great.
Hence the projections shown in Table 4 appear entirely realistic. The
time scale for whites becoming a minority of the population may be
longer. Alternatively, it could be shorter, if for example Turkey is
admitted to the European community and 65 million Turks with their
children acquire the right of abode in Britain.
Table 5. Fertility of different racial groups
Group
Number of children
Chinese
1.3
Whites
1.6
Blacks
2.2
Indians
2.3
Pakistanis/Bangladeshis
5.0
Somalis
5.0
The growth of the numbers of non-Europeans is not peculiar to
Britain. It is taking place throughout Western Europe, in the United
States, Canada and Australia. Professor David Coleman has given
figures for the percentages of non-Europeans in six European countries
in the year 2000 and projected figures for the year 2050. These are
shown in Table 6.
Table 6. Percentages of non-European peoples in six European
countries, 2000 and 2050
Country
% Population
2000
2050
Austria
3.9
5.1
Denmark
6.0
11.5
Germany
6.6
18.2
Netherlands
8.9
16.5
Norway
3.4
14.3
Sweden
6.2
10.7
The figures for the percentages of non-Europeans in six European
countries in the year 2000 are underestimates because they are taken
from census returns which do not include third generation immigrants
(these are counted as indigenous), and because a number immigrants do
not fill in census forms—especially illegals, for obvious reasons. The
projected figures for the year 2050 are also probably underestimates
because they assume that the fertility of immigrants will soon fall to
that of whites, which they may well not. Coleman has given the
statistics on the fertility (Total Fertility Rates) of Europeans and
non-Europeans in France, the Netherlands and Sweden shown in Table 7.
It will be seen that in all three countries the non-Europeans have
about fifty per cent more children that the indigenous populations.
Inevitably, the proportion of non-Europeans in the population will
increase from higher fertility alone.
Table 7. Total Fertility Rates of Europeans and non-Europeans, 2000
Country
Fertility
Europeans
Non-Europeans
France
1.9
2.8
Netherlands
1.7
2.5
Sweden
1.5
2.3
Non-Europeans are also increasing as a percentage of the population
in the United States. Most of these are from Mexico and are Native
American Indians or Mestizos (mixed race European and Native American
Indian), but there are also substantial numbers of Blacks from Africa
and the Caribbean, and of Asians. Altogether these entering the United
States at more than 1 million a year.
The Bureau of the Census estimates that the percentage of Europeans in
the population, which stood at 90 per cent in 1940, had fallen to 71
per cent by 2000 and is projected to be 40 per cent by the year 2100
(these projections assume that the fertility of immigrants will fall
to almost the same figure as that as of whites, which may well be
considered improbable).
Patrick Buchanan has recently written on this huge demographic
transformation which he calls "the Third World invasion".
The Twilight of the European Peoples
Only one conclusion is possible. The rate of increase of the non-
European population could be slower or it could be faster than the
projections given in Table 4 but the broad picture is clear and
inescapable: at some point in the foreseeable future the white British
people will become a minority in these islands, and whites will
likewise become minorities throughout the economically developed
nations of European peoples.
As the proportion of non-Europeans grows in Europe and in the United
States (and also in Canada and Australia) and eventually become
majorities, the intelligence of the populations will fall. The
strength of the economies will equally inevitably decline to the level
of developing nations.
World leadership will pass to Russia and Eastern Europe, and to China
and Japan, if these manage to resist the invasion of non- European
peoples.
We are living in an extraordinary time. Nothing like this has ever
occurred in human history. Mass immigration of non-Europeans will
inevitably result in the European peoples becoming minorities and then
increasingly small minorities in their own countries, as they are in
most of Latin America and the Caribbean islands. Throughout the
Western world the European peoples are allowing themselves to be
replaced in their own homelands by non-Europeans.
What is even more remarkable is that the European peoples have become
quite complacent about their own elimination. Some even welcome it.
Hardly a week goes by without some intellectual or politician
declaring that immigration has been good for the country, that "in our
diversity is our strength" and "we must celebrate our differences".
Others announce that they look forward to the day when whites become a
minority.
This is the first time in the whole of human history that a people has
voluntarily engineered in its own destruction." <<
Richard Lynn is Professor Emeritus, University of Ulster and the
author of several books on IQ.
http://www.vdare.com/lynn/090520_race_differences.htm
Peoples (Lecture,2006)
By Richard Lynn
>> "I want to examine the changing nature of Britishness resulting from the immigration non-Europeans, particularly in the light of IQ differences between immigrants and the native white population. My approach differs from current debates about immigration which are normally concentrated on whether it is good or bad for Britain, and whether we need more of it or less, and not on the quality of the immigrants or their racial identity.
Race And IQ
In my recent review of the research on race differences in
intelligence that has been carried out over the last eighty years I
have set the British IQ at 100 and shown that other Europeans have the
same average IQ, except in the Balkans where it drops to around 93.
Outside of Europe, the East Asians (Chinese, Japanese and Koreans)
have the highest mean IQ at 105. The South Asians and North Africans
have an average IQ of 84, the Caribbeans an IQ of 71, and the blacks
of sub-Saharan African an IQ of 67.
These racial IQs appear to be about fifty per cent genetically
determined and about fifty per cent environmentally determined. This
means that when these peoples migrate to Britain they enter a much
better environment, particularly as regards nutrition, health care and
education, so their IQs increase by about fifty per cent. Thus the IQs
of South Asians and North Africans increase to around 92, while the
IQs of Caribbeans and African blacks increase to around 86.
The low IQ of blacks was been understood from everyday observation
long before it became established by intelligence tests. For instance,
in the eighteenth century David Hume wrote that "I am apt to suspect
that Negroes are naturally inferior to whites. There is no ingenious
manufacture amongst them, no arts, no sciences". The first explorers
of Africa reached the same conclusion. Mungo Park, who visited west
Africa in 1795 and made his way up the Gambia and Niger rivers, noted
that the African peoples had no written language and little that could
be described as civilisation. He described the Africans as living in
"small and incommodious hovels: a circular mud wall about four feet
high, upon which is placed a conical roof, composed of bamboo cane,
and thatched with grass, forms alike the palace of the king and the
hovel of the slave".
The explanation for these race differences in intelligence that has
become widely accepted is that humans evolved in equatorial East
Africa. About 100,000 years ago some groups migrated northwards into
North Africa and then into Asia and Europe. These groups encountered a
more challenging environment in which there were no plant or insect
foods for much of the year, so they had to hunt large animals like
mammoths to obtain their food. They also had to keep warm and for this
they needed to make clothes and shelters. These problems became much
greater in the last ice age that began about 28,000 years ago and
lasted until about 11,000 years ago. All these challenges required
higher intelligence. Only the more intelligent were able to survive in
these harsh environments while the less intelligent perished. One
result of this was that the brain size of the European and East Asian
peoples increased to accommodate the greater intelligence required to
overcome these problems.
These racial differences in intelligence are one of the most
important reasons for the differences in the wealth and poverty of
nations that are present throughout the world (the other main reason
being the presence of a market economy or of some form of socialism or
communism). Intelligence is a major determinant of competence and
earning capacity, so inevitably the European and Far Eastern peoples
whose populations are intelligent achieve higher standards of living
than other peoples who are less intelligent.
This is often called the North-South divide, consisting of the rich
north of Europe, North America and Japan, and the poor south
consisting of South Asian, Africa and Latin America, but this is just
a euphemism for the rich European and Far Eastern peoples who happen
to live mainly in the northern hemisphere and the poor South Asians,
Africans and Latin Americans who live in the south. These differences
in wealth are largely caused by racial differences in intelligence.
Because of this the idea that they can be eliminated and that we can
"make poverty history" by writing off debts and providing more aid is
doomed to failure.
When non-European peoples migrate to Europe and North America their
lower IQs make it difficult for them to cope in economically developed
societies. The effect of race differences in IQ on the ability to cope
was shown for the United States by Richard Herrnstein and Charles
Murray in their book The Bell Curve. Here they showed that blacks with
an average IQ of 85 perform poorly in education and earnings, while
they have high rates of crime, welfare dependency and unemployment.
Hispanics with a somewhat higher average IQ (typically found to be
about 89) do somewhat better, while whites and Asians ("the model
minority") do best.
Similar racial differences have been found in Britain. The Chinese
East Asians perform best in educational attainment and have the lowest
percentage of school exclusions and crime. The native British come
next, followed by the South Asians from the Indian sub-Continent,
while the blacks perform worst. We see this for educational attainment
in A levels in Table 1 (the scores are calculated by counting A grades
as 10, B grades as 8, etc. and are published by the Department for
Education and Skills). [Vdare.com note: A Levels are the British
equivalent of American Advanced Placement courses.]
It will be noted that the Indians do better than the Pakistanis and
Bangladeshis. The main reasons for this are that the Indians have been
longer established in Britain while the Pakistanis and Bangladeshis
are more recent immigrants, and that the Indians are a more selected
group.
Both groups of Blacks from the Caribbean and Africa do much the
worst.
Table 1. A level scores, 1996-2000
Group
A level score
Chinese
16.8
Whites
13.8
Indians
11.3
Pakistani/ Bangladeshi
6.4
Africans
2.8
Caribbeans
1.7
Richard Herrnstein and Charles Murray’s demonstration in The Bell
Curve that in the United States racial IQs are related to crime rates
is equally true in Britain. Table 2 shows the U.K. Home Office figures
for the crime rates whites, Chinese, South Asians and Blacks. These
statistics are for men in prison in relation to their numbers in the
population and are expressed as odds ratios in which the white rate is
set at 1.0 and the rates of the other groups are expressed as
multiples of this. Thus the Chinese rate is 0.7 of the white rate,
while the South Asian rate is 1.3 times the white rate, and the Black
rate is 8.1 times the white rate.
These race differences in crime are well known to authorities in this
field. For instance, Professor Sir Michael Rutter writes that "there
are substantial differences in the rates of crime among ethnic
groups", although he goes on to say that "these differences are
exaggerated by small (but cumulative) biases in the ways in which
judicial processing takes place…" .
This implies that racial prejudice in the police and judicial system
are partly responsible, although Sir Michael does not offer any
explanation for why the South Asian crime rate is only marginally
higher than the white, or for the much lower crime rate of the
Chinese.
Table 2. Crime rates (Men)
Group
Crime: Odds ratios
Whites
1.0
Chinese
0.7
South Asians
1.3
Blacks
8.1
[Home Office. Statistics on Race and the Criminal Justice System.
London: Home , 1998 PDF]
Blacks also have much higher crime rates than Whites in the United
States, and also in the Caribbean and South Africa. High rates of
crime seem to be a universal characteristic of Blacks.
There appear to be three reasons why racial IQs are related to crime
rates.
* First, those with low IQs are less able to understand the
adverse cost of being caught and punished.
* Second, boys with low IQs do badly at school and typically live
with others who also do badly at school. As a result the whole
subculture becomes alienated from school and society and sees little
prospect of earning a good living by gainful employment. Crime seems
to offer an attractive alternative. Alienation from school leads to
disruptive behaviour that eventually leads to expulsion or exclusion.
Thus the race differences in school exclusions published by the
Department for Education and Skills are similar to those in IQ,
educational attainment and crime. Figures for recent years are shown
in Table 3. We see here that Chinese are only excluded at one-fifth
the rate of whites. The South Asian exclusion rate is about the same,
while the Black rate is 4.4 times greater.
Table 3. School exclusions
School exclusions
Odds ratios
Whites
1.0
Chinese
0.2
South Asians
0.9
Blacks
4.4
* A third reason for the high rates of crime and school exclusions
of Blacks seems to be that, in addition to their low IQ, Blacks have
short time horizons such that they do not look ahead at the likely
future consequences of their actions.
This characteristic has frequently been noted. For instance, John
Speke who explored East Africa in the 1860s and discovered the source
of the Nile, described the typical African as "a creature of impulse –
a grown child".
At about the same time Anthony Trollope, the British novelist, visited
the Caribbean and wrote up his impressions in his book The West Indies
and the Spanish Main. Here he described the characteristics of the
Blacks, Whites, Chinese, Indians and Mulattos, and wrote of the Blacks
that "they have no care for tomorrow, but they delight in being gaudy
for today. Their crimes are those of momentary impulse".
Immigration Into The White World
The numbers of non-Europeans in Britain have been growing steadily
since the British Nationality Act of 1948 conferred the right of
citizenship and abode on all members of the British Commonwealth and
Empire.
This trend is shown in Table 4 taken from the census returns of 1951,
1961, 1971 and 2001, and projected forward in time to 2031 and 2061.
We see that the non-European population increased around ten fold from
1961 to 2001, and about 4.5 fold from 1971 to 2001. The projections
extrapolate the 4.5 fold increase over the 30 year period from 1971 to
2001 forward to 2031 and again to 2061. We see that the numbers of non-
Europeans are projected to reach around 15.5 million by 2031 and 70
mi1lion in 2061.
Over the same period the numbers of white can be projected to decline
because whites have approximately 1.6 children per couple. The effect
of this is likely to be that the numbers of whites will decline from
around 55 million in 2001 to around 34 million in 2061. Hence by 2061
about two thirds of the population of Britain will be of non-European
origin, while about one third will be white.
Table 4. The numbers of non-Europeans in Britain
Year
Non-Europeans
1951
138,000
1961
360,000
1971
751,000
2001
3,450,000
2031
15,550,000
2061
69,862,000
These projections are "guesstimates" – reasonable or perhaps not so
reasonable guesses about what the future may bring - and perhaps some
people will say that this could not possibly happen.
But why not? There is little reason to suppose that the principal
factors responsible for the growth in the numbers of non-Europeans in
Britain is likely to change.
Consider the reasons for growth of non-European population.
* First, they are entering Britain as asylum seekers and this is
likely to continue.
The number of asylum seekers from Africa in 1981 was 108,000. By 2001,
it was 480,000, an increase of more than fourfold over a period of
only 20 years. As word spreads through Africa that entry to Britain is
easy and life much better than in Africa, the numbers are likely to
increase further. Most asylum seekers are refused asylum, but very few
are actually deported. This is because of the problems of finding them
and when they are found they often refuse to disclose where they have
come from, so it is not possible to deport them.
* Second, many non-Europeans enter Britain as illegal immigrants
in the backs of lorries, on the Eurostar [The train through the
Channel Tunnel] or hidden as stowaways in ships.
Once they are in Britain they have little difficulty in finding
somewhere to live, often provided by local authorities, and they
either find work or obtain social security unemployment payments. This
also is very difficult to stop.
* Third, many enter Britain legally as visitors and students, and
stay on indefinitely.
* Fourth, many more enter Britain legally through arranged
marriages.
This is especially common among the Pakistanis and Bangladeshis, more
than half of whom marry spouses from their home country and bring
their spouses to Britain. Other illegals simply pay someone to go
through a marriage ceremony with a British national through which they
acquire citizenship.
* Fifth, non-Europeans (except for the Chinese) have more children
than whites.
The numbers of children of various immigrant groups found in the 2001
census are shown in Table 5. It will be seen that the white fertility
rate is 1.6 children per woman, while blacks and the Indians have
about 30 percent more children than whites at 2.2 and 2.3. The
Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Somalis have 5.0, more than three times
the number of children as whites.
The higher fertility of non-Europeans tends to decline in the second
and third generations but not to the low level of whites.
All of these five causes of the growth of the growth in the numbers of
non-Europeans in Britain would be very difficult to stop or even to
reduce.
The problem lies in the nature of democracy. In democracies,
politicians think short term. Their objective is to win an election in
two, three or maybe four years’ time. Politicians cannot afford to
antagonize minorities with votes for the sake of long term benefits
for the nation.
Immigrant minorities want more immigration of people like themselves.
When the immigrant vote becomes sizable, politicians can no longer
afford to antagonize it. This point has been reached in Britain, where
the new compassionate Conservative Party no longer puts the control of
immigration among its priorities. It has likewise been reached in
Western Europe and the United States. Theoretically immigration could
be stopped but the cost in terms of votes, the opposition of a largely
liberal media and the likelihood of civil unrest among immigrant
communities has become too great.
Hence the projections shown in Table 4 appear entirely realistic. The
time scale for whites becoming a minority of the population may be
longer. Alternatively, it could be shorter, if for example Turkey is
admitted to the European community and 65 million Turks with their
children acquire the right of abode in Britain.
Table 5. Fertility of different racial groups
Group
Number of children
Chinese
1.3
Whites
1.6
Blacks
2.2
Indians
2.3
Pakistanis/Bangladeshis
5.0
Somalis
5.0
The growth of the numbers of non-Europeans is not peculiar to
Britain. It is taking place throughout Western Europe, in the United
States, Canada and Australia. Professor David Coleman has given
figures for the percentages of non-Europeans in six European countries
in the year 2000 and projected figures for the year 2050. These are
shown in Table 6.
Table 6. Percentages of non-European peoples in six European
countries, 2000 and 2050
Country
% Population
2000
2050
Austria
3.9
5.1
Denmark
6.0
11.5
Germany
6.6
18.2
Netherlands
8.9
16.5
Norway
3.4
14.3
Sweden
6.2
10.7
The figures for the percentages of non-Europeans in six European
countries in the year 2000 are underestimates because they are taken
from census returns which do not include third generation immigrants
(these are counted as indigenous), and because a number immigrants do
not fill in census forms—especially illegals, for obvious reasons. The
projected figures for the year 2050 are also probably underestimates
because they assume that the fertility of immigrants will soon fall to
that of whites, which they may well not. Coleman has given the
statistics on the fertility (Total Fertility Rates) of Europeans and
non-Europeans in France, the Netherlands and Sweden shown in Table 7.
It will be seen that in all three countries the non-Europeans have
about fifty per cent more children that the indigenous populations.
Inevitably, the proportion of non-Europeans in the population will
increase from higher fertility alone.
Table 7. Total Fertility Rates of Europeans and non-Europeans, 2000
Country
Fertility
Europeans
Non-Europeans
France
1.9
2.8
Netherlands
1.7
2.5
Sweden
1.5
2.3
Non-Europeans are also increasing as a percentage of the population
in the United States. Most of these are from Mexico and are Native
American Indians or Mestizos (mixed race European and Native American
Indian), but there are also substantial numbers of Blacks from Africa
and the Caribbean, and of Asians. Altogether these entering the United
States at more than 1 million a year.
The Bureau of the Census estimates that the percentage of Europeans in
the population, which stood at 90 per cent in 1940, had fallen to 71
per cent by 2000 and is projected to be 40 per cent by the year 2100
(these projections assume that the fertility of immigrants will fall
to almost the same figure as that as of whites, which may well be
considered improbable).
Patrick Buchanan has recently written on this huge demographic
transformation which he calls "the Third World invasion".
The Twilight of the European Peoples
Only one conclusion is possible. The rate of increase of the non-
European population could be slower or it could be faster than the
projections given in Table 4 but the broad picture is clear and
inescapable: at some point in the foreseeable future the white British
people will become a minority in these islands, and whites will
likewise become minorities throughout the economically developed
nations of European peoples.
As the proportion of non-Europeans grows in Europe and in the United
States (and also in Canada and Australia) and eventually become
majorities, the intelligence of the populations will fall. The
strength of the economies will equally inevitably decline to the level
of developing nations.
World leadership will pass to Russia and Eastern Europe, and to China
and Japan, if these manage to resist the invasion of non- European
peoples.
We are living in an extraordinary time. Nothing like this has ever
occurred in human history. Mass immigration of non-Europeans will
inevitably result in the European peoples becoming minorities and then
increasingly small minorities in their own countries, as they are in
most of Latin America and the Caribbean islands. Throughout the
Western world the European peoples are allowing themselves to be
replaced in their own homelands by non-Europeans.
What is even more remarkable is that the European peoples have become
quite complacent about their own elimination. Some even welcome it.
Hardly a week goes by without some intellectual or politician
declaring that immigration has been good for the country, that "in our
diversity is our strength" and "we must celebrate our differences".
Others announce that they look forward to the day when whites become a
minority.
This is the first time in the whole of human history that a people has
voluntarily engineered in its own destruction." <<
Richard Lynn is Professor Emeritus, University of Ulster and the
author of several books on IQ.
http://www.vdare.com/lynn/090520_race_differences.htm