BretLudwig
June 3rd 08, 11:14 PM
National Data, By Edwin S. Rubenstein
A Nation Of…Emigrants?
>>"George W. Bush’s latest disapproval rating (69 percent) is the
highest of any president in the 70-year history of the Gallup poll. Faith
in the economy, as measured by consumer confidence, has dropped to levels
not seen since the great stagflation of late seventies/early eighties.
We are mad as Hell, and ought not to take it any more. But inauguration
day is 240 days away. (Sigh.)
Some Americans have reached the point of no return. Literally.
A recent Barron’s article by Bob Adams analyzed the responses of 115,000
Americans polled by Zogby International. [A New Life In Panama, September
24, 2007]. Extrapolating the poll results Adams reaches these rather
startling conclusions:
bullet 1.6 million U.S. households have already made the decision to leave
the country
bullet 1.8 million are seriously considering and likely to leave
bullet 7.7 million are somewhat serious about leaving and may do so
bullet 3 million are seriously considering purchase of non-U.S. property
bullet 10 million are somewhat serious about purchase of non-U.S.
property
There are 113 million households in the country, so the poll figures imply
that about 10 percent of us are looking to leave while another 11 percent
are considering living abroad at least part-time.
These folks are not retirees: most are in their 20s, 30s, and 40s. They
are not tax cheats, corporate employees heading for overseas assignments,
or Foreign Service personnel. Most are private citizens leaving the good
ole U.S.A. on their own initiative. They are mainly malcontents and/or
adventurers.
Adams, CEO of New Global Initiatives commissioned the poll to fill a data
gap. Not for the first time in the immigration area, the federal
government has no reliable database that tracks the movement of Americans
out of the country. [Read the Migration Policy Institute report (PDF)]
Even true believers find Adams’ numbers, well, hard to believe.
They‘re simply too large to jibe with what most of us think is
plausible—or even possible—regarding the potential emigration of U.S.
natives.
There’s also a whiff of self promotion: New Global Initiatives is a
consultant to firms that sell goods and services to Americans living
abroad.
But where else can we go for this kind of information? The paucity of
reliable emigration data is acknowledged by official Washington:
"Accurate, detailed, and timely estimates of emigration are needed to
develop and evaluate U.S. immigration policy, to derive accurate national
and local population estimates (including estimates of unauthorized
immigration), and to measure coverage of the decennial censuses. The
sketchy data that are available indicate that emigration is a large and
growing component of U.S. population change. However, partly because of
inherent methodological difficulties, data on emigration from the United
States are not being collected." [Immigration and Naturalization Service,
2000 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, PDF ]
This wasn’t always the case. Until 1957 U.S. immigration authorities
collected annual data on emigration—"inherent methodological
difficulties" or not. Since then emigration flows have been estimated by
the Census Bureau, using statistics collected in other countries on
immigration from the U.S. as a guide.
During the 1995-97 period the Census estimated U.S. emigration to be at
268,000 per year– with only 48,000 of this native-born. In 2005 Census
upped its emigration figure to 310,000. The increase was due solely to the
estimated growth in the foreign-born population; Census kept its
native-born emigration estimate at the same level as in 1995-97.
In a word, Census views native-born emigration as a trivial constant not
requiring rigorous analysis.
British experience suggests that emigration may be caused by immigration.
Since the Blair government massively increased immigration after 2001, 2.3
million immigrants have entered the country, mostly from the Third
World—and two million Britons have left, often citing the
transformation of their home country.
Of course, this further weakens the argument that immigration is needed to
augment the workforce.
The U.S. certainly has the immigration. Eventually, we may get the
emigration—and the Zogby/Adams poll could prove to be prescient.
Maybe even the Federal government will wake up."<<
Edwin S. Rubenstein (email him) is President of ESR Research Economic
Consultants in Indianapolis.
http://www.vdare.com/rubenstein/080602_nd.htm
--
Message posted using http://www.talkaboutaudio.com/group/rec.audio.opinion/
More information at http://www.talkaboutaudio.com/faq.html
A Nation Of…Emigrants?
>>"George W. Bush’s latest disapproval rating (69 percent) is the
highest of any president in the 70-year history of the Gallup poll. Faith
in the economy, as measured by consumer confidence, has dropped to levels
not seen since the great stagflation of late seventies/early eighties.
We are mad as Hell, and ought not to take it any more. But inauguration
day is 240 days away. (Sigh.)
Some Americans have reached the point of no return. Literally.
A recent Barron’s article by Bob Adams analyzed the responses of 115,000
Americans polled by Zogby International. [A New Life In Panama, September
24, 2007]. Extrapolating the poll results Adams reaches these rather
startling conclusions:
bullet 1.6 million U.S. households have already made the decision to leave
the country
bullet 1.8 million are seriously considering and likely to leave
bullet 7.7 million are somewhat serious about leaving and may do so
bullet 3 million are seriously considering purchase of non-U.S. property
bullet 10 million are somewhat serious about purchase of non-U.S.
property
There are 113 million households in the country, so the poll figures imply
that about 10 percent of us are looking to leave while another 11 percent
are considering living abroad at least part-time.
These folks are not retirees: most are in their 20s, 30s, and 40s. They
are not tax cheats, corporate employees heading for overseas assignments,
or Foreign Service personnel. Most are private citizens leaving the good
ole U.S.A. on their own initiative. They are mainly malcontents and/or
adventurers.
Adams, CEO of New Global Initiatives commissioned the poll to fill a data
gap. Not for the first time in the immigration area, the federal
government has no reliable database that tracks the movement of Americans
out of the country. [Read the Migration Policy Institute report (PDF)]
Even true believers find Adams’ numbers, well, hard to believe.
They‘re simply too large to jibe with what most of us think is
plausible—or even possible—regarding the potential emigration of U.S.
natives.
There’s also a whiff of self promotion: New Global Initiatives is a
consultant to firms that sell goods and services to Americans living
abroad.
But where else can we go for this kind of information? The paucity of
reliable emigration data is acknowledged by official Washington:
"Accurate, detailed, and timely estimates of emigration are needed to
develop and evaluate U.S. immigration policy, to derive accurate national
and local population estimates (including estimates of unauthorized
immigration), and to measure coverage of the decennial censuses. The
sketchy data that are available indicate that emigration is a large and
growing component of U.S. population change. However, partly because of
inherent methodological difficulties, data on emigration from the United
States are not being collected." [Immigration and Naturalization Service,
2000 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, PDF ]
This wasn’t always the case. Until 1957 U.S. immigration authorities
collected annual data on emigration—"inherent methodological
difficulties" or not. Since then emigration flows have been estimated by
the Census Bureau, using statistics collected in other countries on
immigration from the U.S. as a guide.
During the 1995-97 period the Census estimated U.S. emigration to be at
268,000 per year– with only 48,000 of this native-born. In 2005 Census
upped its emigration figure to 310,000. The increase was due solely to the
estimated growth in the foreign-born population; Census kept its
native-born emigration estimate at the same level as in 1995-97.
In a word, Census views native-born emigration as a trivial constant not
requiring rigorous analysis.
British experience suggests that emigration may be caused by immigration.
Since the Blair government massively increased immigration after 2001, 2.3
million immigrants have entered the country, mostly from the Third
World—and two million Britons have left, often citing the
transformation of their home country.
Of course, this further weakens the argument that immigration is needed to
augment the workforce.
The U.S. certainly has the immigration. Eventually, we may get the
emigration—and the Zogby/Adams poll could prove to be prescient.
Maybe even the Federal government will wake up."<<
Edwin S. Rubenstein (email him) is President of ESR Research Economic
Consultants in Indianapolis.
http://www.vdare.com/rubenstein/080602_nd.htm
--
Message posted using http://www.talkaboutaudio.com/group/rec.audio.opinion/
More information at http://www.talkaboutaudio.com/faq.html