Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

"Arny Krueger" > wrote in message
...
> "Harry Lavo" > wrote in message
>
>
>> That's a reasonable position, Dick. All I am saying she
>> is well positioned to judge as opposed to many other of
>> us. I just found it another in an interesting string of
>> antecdotes the pickup in this market over the last
>> five or so years. She struck me as a reasonably
>> well-positioned source.
>
> I question the logic. The management of a single retail store or a small
> retail chain is basically just one small data point.

Agreed to the single point, but this does happen to be the largest music
retailer in NYC.....not exactly podunk, Iowa.

> Furthermore, anybody whose making money selling a certain kind of product
> is
> obviously biased.

J&R sells everything electronic, everything music, everything photo,
everything kitchen, every.....man, that's a lot of biases!


> Let's face it, only a miniscule percentage of all retailers of media or
> audio electronics even bother with vinyl any more.

More and more every year...even Barnes and Noble, about as conservative a
music retailer as there is, is experimenting. And I daresay there are many
more doing so today than ten years ago.

> When you see a news story about LPs, ask yourself - would this be news if
> it
> wasn't about LPs? What makes it news is how improbable it is, all other
> things considered.

Certainly is improbably....after all, "Perfect Sound Forever" was supposed
to do in vinyl. It was buried by the press and by engineering types like
yourself....and flowers planted on it. Funny thing happened though. The
ground heaved, and up she came again.....not quite her old self, but living
and breathing. What's not to marvel over/do a story about?

>
>> Not directly related, but I have a young son (age 25) who
>> is a musician and has his own band, and he was telling me
>> of the vinyl resurgence five years ago (we never talked
>> about it, so he didn't know that I already knew something
>> about it although he did know I still had a lot of
>> records, many of which I played from time to time). He
>> asked me at that time for a turntable, and as a result,
>> received a Dual 704 with Shure cartridge that I had
>> bought and was planning to resell on ebay.
>
> Letsee, like father, like son?

Quite possibly, but the impetus seemed to come from a musician friend who
had started amassing his own vinyl collection. He had never shown much
interest in my vinyl or record playing gear.


>> My daughter
>> (age 29) came in one day about two years ago with a bag
>> containing seven used LP's that she had bought....mostly
>> early '70's rock. She currently does not have her own
>> apartment, so her stereo is in storage. She asked me to
>> transfer them to CD so she could play them in her car.
>
> That makes sense, and just shows how unusable LPs are by modern standards.

Do you understand the definition of "non-sequitor"?

>
>> Her comment: I wish cars still came with cassette
>> decks...I liked them better.
>
> She obviously never saw the many cassettes, twisted tape hanging out like
> a
> long skinny banner, that ended up on the sides of many a busy road, thrown
> there in fits of absolute frustration.

Neither have I, and I lived through the cassette period. She simply
expressed a preference....I didn't grill her to find out why. I assumed
nostalgia for when she was a little girl and used to bring her cassettes
along on trips. But who knows, maybe she's just another budding, totally
irrational audiophile, out to annoy you.

Harry Lavo wrote:
> "Arny Krueger" > wrote in message
> ...
>> "Harry Lavo" > wrote in message
>>

<snip>

>> Let's face it, only a miniscule percentage of all retailers of media or
>> audio electronics even bother with vinyl any more.
>
> More and more every year...even Barnes and Noble, about as conservative a
> music retailer as there is, is experimenting. And I daresay there are many
> more doing so today than ten years ago.

Not around here they (meaning the *many* dealers) aren't (Phoenix area).
I can say that LP's are a much higher *percentage* of the music
available for sale than at any time in recent memory. An artifact of a
small resurgence in vinyl, and primarily a massive decrease in the
numbers and variety of CD's being stocked. Barnes & Noble may be
experimenting with vinyl on-line, but I don't look for any in the stores
here. Borders no longer even sells music - in any format - here in the
Phoenix area. They dumped the lot this year; it's on-line only now.


>> When you see a news story about LPs, ask yourself - would this be news if
>> it
>> wasn't about LPs? What makes it news is how improbable it is, all other
>> things considered.
>
> Certainly is improbably....after all, "Perfect Sound Forever" was supposed
> to do in vinyl.

And, it basically did. Just as streaming and digital downloads (or
their as yet undeveloped successors) will eventually do in CD. But, as
with riding horses, driving Model T's or Stanley Steamers, there will
likely always be niche hobbyist markets for both vinyl and CD. As long
as that niche is commercially viable for a few fringe players, the media
will continue to be available. But, they will, nonetheless, be legacy
technologies relegated to niche constituencies.

In fact, the apparently unavoidable slide from brick and mortar
storefront to non-stocking e-tailers is likely vinyl's best friend (and
will be CD's as well) since it creates availability, albeit not very
timely, without a retailer having to stock slow/no moving inventory.


> It was buried by the press and by engineering types like
> yourself....and flowers planted on it. Funny thing happened though. The
> ground heaved, and up she came again.....not quite her old self, but living
> and breathing. What's not to marvel over/do a story about?

The point is, it's not much of a story IMO. There are a number of
factors that can influence such minor upticks in vinyl sales (e.g.
e-tailing as mentioned previously). Good vinyl playback equipment is not
cheap, so having a listener base that has invested heavily in equipment
(and that has the concomitant disposable income) and likes vinyl sound
supplies a stable buyer base. As more titles are made available - or
higher quality pressings / recordings/ etc. - that same base will likely
buy more, stimulating more variety of production. That is not, however,
sustainable as a method of long term growth unless the base is increased
significantly. However, having that stable base, when even a modest
"fad" of younger folks getting into vinyl occurs (of which I have
personally met exactly *none*) will appear as significant.

I mean, look at the album numbers from 2007-2008:

LP's - increased by 1.6M units - which is well more than double;
CD's - decreased by 126.4M units
Downloads - increased by 14.4M units

The *story*, IMO, is that overall album sales dropped by 108.6M units!

And the uptick in downloads (excluding singles, and DVDs) is almost 9
times the increase in LP's. And that 'massive' increase in LP's is still
only 0.36% of the total sales (for a total LP sales of 0.66%). I mean
let's face it, when the overall album market (comprised of 3 basic media
types) drops 20%, a <0.4% relative change in one medium is statistically
insignificant.

<snip>

>> She obviously never saw the many cassettes, twisted tape hanging out like
>> a
>> long skinny banner, that ended up on the sides of many a busy road, thrown
>> there in fits of absolute frustration.
>
> Neither have I, and I lived through the cassette period.

Wow - you obviously didn't get out much then. They were rather
ubiquitous in the 70's around these parts.

Keith

On Dec 8, 2:50=A0pm, "Harry Lavo" > wrote:

> The Times reporter didn't say it wasn't a fad -- the ower of J&R said it
> wasn't a fad. =A0Who's better to judge....you, or she who talks to and ca=
ters
> to her customers?

Check again, Harry. The sentence has neither quotes nor attribution.
It's the reporter's words.

Harry Lavo wrote:
> "Arny Krueger" > wrote in message
> ...
>
>>"Harry Lavo" > wrote in message

>>
>>
>>>That's a reasonable position, Dick. All I am saying she
>>>is well positioned to judge as opposed to many other of
>>>us. I just found it another in an interesting string of
>>>antecdotes the pickup in this market over the last
>>>five or so years. She struck me as a reasonably
>>>well-positioned source.
>>
>>I question the logic. The management of a single retail store or a small
>>retail chain is basically just one small data point.
>
> Agreed to the single point, but this does happen to be the largest music
> retailer in NYC.....not exactly podunk, Iowa.

But it's but one data point, and missing data at that.

> J&R sells everything electronic, everything music, everything photo,
> everything kitchen, every.....man,

So? How is that relevant?

>that's a lot of biases!

Yes, it is. Are we to think that people are incapable of holding
more than a small handful of biases and opinions at once? Indeed,
I might even suggest that people are quite capably of not only
holding a multitude of biases simultaneously, but that many of
them may contradict and conflict, as irrational as that may seem.

> Certainly is improbably....after all, "Perfect Sound Forever" was supposed
> to do in vinyl.

Harry, if you have problems with the "perfect sound forever"
slogan, take it up with the *marketing* genius who came up
with it. The ongoing attempts to lay that at the feet of
the technical people invilved in the medium might feel good,
but such attempts are quite misdirected and, frankly, are
getting very tiring.

> It was buried by the press and by engineering types like
> yourself....and flowers planted on it. Funny thing happened though. The
> ground heaved, and up she came again.....not quite her old self, but living
> and breathing. What's not to marvel over/do a story about?

Gee, sounds like a zombie movie to me! Where's my nerf gun
bag of tube socks?

--
+--------------------------------+
+ Dick Pierce |
+ Professional Audio Development |
+--------------------------------+

On Dec 9, 5:25=A0pm, Keith > wrote:

> I mean, look at the album numbers from 2007-2008:
>
> LP's - increased by 1.6M units - which is well more than double;
> CD's - decreased by 126.4M units
> Downloads - increased by 14.4M units
>
> The *story*, IMO, is that overall album sales dropped by 108.6M units!
>
> And the uptick in downloads (excluding singles, and DVDs) is almost 9
> times the increase in LP's. And that 'massive' increase in LP's is still
> only 0.36% of the total sales (for a total LP sales of 0.66%). =A0I mean
> let's face it, when the overall album market (comprised of 3 basic media
> types) drops 20%, a <0.4% relative change in one medium is statistically
> insignificant.

These are RIAA shipment figures, if anyone cares. They understate the
download side, which is predominantly singles and rose by 200M units,
equivalent to about 20M albums' worth. Add in the, um, "unofficial"
downloads, and vinyl's market share looks even more puny.

bob

"bob" > wrote in message
...
> On Dec 8, 2:50=A0pm, "Harry Lavo" > wrote:
>
>> The Times reporter didn't say it wasn't a fad -- the ower of J&R said it
>> wasn't a fad. =A0Who's better to judge....you, or she who talks to and
>> ca=
> ters
>> to her customers?
>
> Check again, Harry. The sentence has neither quotes nor attribution.
> It's the reporter's words.

I stand corected, Bob, thank you. In fact it was the reporters conclusion.
Whether or not she may have influenced that conclusion we don't know....but
apparently some facts did, as he said in full "Sales of vinyl albums have
been climbing steadily for several years, tromping on the notion that the
rebound was just a fad."

He might have been looking at something like the list of evidence that Scott
published here just a few days ago, which if I may quote in full, was as
follows:

"The booming trend became apparent in 2003. Nielsen SoundScan
announced that ?formats classified as ?Other? (largely vinyl, but
including a small number of DVD audio- albums) showed an increase of
more than 30 per cent in the period 2000-2003.? (Hayes 2006) That same
year The National Association of Recording Merchandisers (NARM)
reported that sales of new and used vinyl records combined had
increased by more than 300 percent since 2000, bringing in $67
million. New CDs alone brought in more than $12 billion. The
mainstream was obviously in the digital domain, but vinyl replay as a
subculture was definitely on the rise. (Manez, 2003) The owner of
independent reissue label Sundazed in New York commented: ?I don't
consider it a small niche anymore. At Sundazed, we did half a million
in sales in vinyl in 2003. That's not small potatoes. "It has become
so much more mainstream that even the lay person knows something's
going on.? (Petrick, 2004) Yet the biggest boom was still to come. 6.4
Vinyl is back in the (youth) mainstream Last year, Virgin Megastores
UK announced it would re-arrange its stores to better accommodate
vinyl records. According to the company, ?up to 70 percent of sales of
new releases are vinyl.? (Glover, 2006). In 2007, in the UK Virgin
Megastores, vinyl outsells CDs 80% to 20% for albums available on both
formats. (Lindich, 2007) Even the 7? vinyl single has returned.
According to the British Phonographic Industry (BPI), ?annual sales of
vinyl singles in the U.K. rose sixfold, accounting for 14.7 percent of
all physical singles sales in 2005, up from 12.2 percent in 2004.? Of
course this applies to customers actually coming into stores to buy
music on a physical carrier. However, Virgin Megastores UK predicts
that digital music downloads "will account for no more than 10 percent
of the overall market by 2009. The company hopes its vinyl strategy ?
will offer consumers enough added value to head off growing
competition from cut-price supermarket CD offers and internet download
services." (Glover, 2006) Also chain store HMV agrees that vinyl is
back and the company has been rapidly expanding its record racks to
meet rising demand. (Allen, 2007)"

Let's see....2003 to 2009....does that constitute a trend?

On Dec 9, 9:09=A0pm, "Harry Lavo" > wrote:

> He might have been looking at something like the list of evidence that Sc=
ott
> published here just a few days ago, which if I may quote in full, was as
> follows:
>
> =A0"The booming trend became apparent in 2003. Nielsen SoundScan
> announced that ?formats classified as ?Other? (largely vinyl, but
> including a small number of DVD audio- albums) showed an increase of
> more than 30 per cent in the period 2000-2003.?

That also includes SACD, which was introduced in that period and, with
DVD-A, likely accounts for the totality of the increase.

> (Hayes 2006) That same
> year The National Association of Recording Merchandisers (NARM)
> reported that sales of new and used vinyl records combined had
> increased by more than 300 percent since 2000,

For every person who buys a used LP, somebody gets rid of one. So
that's evidence of disinterest as well as interest.

Look, there's no question that there's been an uptick, and the data we
have isn't good enough to tell us exactly when it started. The NYT
cites only an increase from 2008 to 2009, according to Nielsen
Soundscan. RIAA shipments began rising in 2007. And, let's face it, if
this had been a trend that had been going on for years, the NYT
probably wouldn't have been interested in writing about it. This is a
man-bites-dog story precisely because the turnaround is so recent.

bob

>"Dick Pierce" > wrote in message
...
> Harry Lavo wrote:
>> "Arny Krueger" > wrote in message
>> ...
>>
>>>"Harry Lavo" > wrote in message

>>>
>>>
>>>>That's a reasonable position, Dick. All I am saying she
>>>>is well positioned to judge as opposed to many other of
>>>>us. I just found it another in an interesting string of
>>>>antecdotes the pickup in this market over the last
>>>>five or so years. She struck me as a reasonably
>>>>well-positioned source.
>>>
>>>I question the logic. The management of a single retail store or a small
>>>retail chain is basically just one small data point.
>>
>> Agreed to the single point, but this does happen to be the largest music
>> retailer in NYC.....not exactly podunk, Iowa.
>
>But it's but one data point, and missing data at that.

Yep, so clearly it is anecdotal....but based on her own multiyear statistics
and experience in a city that is often a forerunner of trends elsewhere.

>
>> J&R sells everything electronic, everything music, everything photo,
>> everything kitchen, every.....man,
>
>So? How is that relevant?

Because she has no apparent commercial reason to be biased towards vinyl and
against other forms of music and machines to retrieve it, which she also
sells.

>
>>that's a lot of biases!
>
> Yes, it is. Are we to think that people are incapable of holding
> more than a small handful of biases and opinions at once? Indeed,
> I might even suggest that people are quite capably of not only
> holding a multitude of biases simultaneously, but that many of
> them may contradict and conflict, as irrational as that may seem.

Yes indeedy, they can (I was a student of behavioral psychology back in
business school). But I suspect commercial biases are a bit more rational
than that.

>
>> Certainly is improbably....after all, "Perfect Sound Forever" was
>> supposed to do in vinyl.
>
> Harry, if you have problems with the "perfect sound forever"
> slogan, take it up with the *marketing* genius who came up
> with it. The ongoing attempts to lay that at the feet of
> the technical people invilved in the medium might feel good,
> but such attempts are quite misdirected and, frankly, are
> getting very tiring.

I fail to see above where I singled out engineers or technical people...I
was simply referring to the great "brainwash" that took place upon CD's
birth courtesy of SONY. I think you are a bit sensitive to this, although I
can assure you there were any number of technical folk who were happy to
dring the cool aid, as noted below:

>> It was buried by the press and by engineering types like yourself....and
>> flowers planted on it. Funny thing happened though. The ground heaved,
>> and up she came again.....not quite her old self, but living and
>> breathing. What's not to marvel over/do a story about?

Press = marketing releases = marketing folk, whom you don't want to be
associated with
Engineering types = sales support engineers = those who try to snow the
customer/press in support of the marketing types

I am happy to say I know you were not among either group.

> Gee, sounds like a zombie movie to me! Where's my nerf gun
> bag of tube socks?

:-)

Left them on campus, did you?



> --
> +--------------------------------+
> + Dick Pierce |
> + Professional Audio Development |
> +--------------------------------+

"Harry Lavo" > wrote in message

> "Arny Krueger" > wrote in message
> ...
>> "Harry Lavo" > wrote in message
>>
>>
>>> That's a reasonable position, Dick. All I am saying she
>>> is well positioned to judge as opposed to many other of
>>> us. I just found it another in an interesting string of
>>> anecdotes the pickup in this market over the last
>>> five or so years. She struck me as a reasonably
>>> well-positioned source.

>> I question the logic. The management of a single retail
>> store or a small retail chain is basically just one
>> small data point.

> Agreed to the single point, but this does happen to be
> the largest music retailer in NYC.....not exactly podunk,
> Iowa.

So what? The NYC area is an important market, but it is only a tiny
fraction of the US market.

>> Furthermore, anybody whose making money selling a
>> certain kind of product is obviously biased.

> J&R sells everything electronic, everything music,
> everything photo, everything kitchen, every.....man,
> that's a lot of biases!

At this point vinyl is a sort of an exclusive product for them. Most of
their competition wisely abandoned it decades ago.

>> Let's face it, only a miniscule percentage of all
>> retailers of media or audio electronics even bother with
>> vinyl any more.

> More and more every year...even Barnes and Noble, about
> as conservative a music retailer as there is, is
> experimenting. And I daresay there are many more doing
> so today than ten years ago.

But nothing at all like they were doing 30 years ago.

Reality is a series of ups and downs, with the
current numbers appearing to be highly anomalous.

RIAA vinyl sales (millions of units):

1991 29.4

1992 13.5

1993 10.6

1994 17.8

1995 25.1

1996 36.8

1997 33.3

1998 34.0

1999 31.8

2000 27.7

2001 27.4

2002 20.5

2003 21.7

2004 19.2

2005 14.2

2006 15.7

2007 22.9

2008 56.7


> Certainly is improbably....after all, "Perfect Sound
> Forever" was supposed to do in vinyl.

You mean Harry that you haven't noticed that the CD knocked vinyl from 100%
of the consumer recording marketplace to less than 0.4%?

On Dec 10, 6:42=A0am, "Harry Lavo" > wrote:
> >"Dick Pierce" > wrote in message
> ...
> > Harry Lavo wrote:

> >> J&R sells everything electronic, everything music, everything photo,
> >> everything kitchen, every.....man,
>
> >So? How is that relevant?
>
> Because she has no apparent commercial reason to be biased towards vinyl =
and
> against other forms of music and machines to retrieve it, which she also
> sells.

Oh, come now. A reporter calls her up wanting to write a story about
the vinyl "resurgence." Do you really think she's going to talk about
how much better and more popular CDs are? How does it help J&R's
overall business if she talks the reporter out of doing the story? If
the NYT is going to write about vinyl, she wants to use that as a
platform to promote the impression that J&R is where all the kool kids
go to get theirs.

And in a few years' time, when the NYT decides to write a story about
whether CD is dead yet, she'll be happy to tell that same reporter
that it's not, at least not her her store=97and I bet she doesn't even
mention vinyl.

That doesn't mean anything she says is wrong, and most of what she
says sounds pretty plausible to me. But unbiased? Please.

bob