Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

"Dick Pierce" > wrote in message
...
> Harry Lavo wrote:
>> "Dick Pierce" > wrote in message
>> ...
>>>Further, there's no breakdown on how many of those sales constitute
>>>new vs resale/preowned product (in either case, to be fair).
>>>
>>>But the noise in the CD data is larger by a lot than the total LP
>>>sales.
>>
>> Dick, I'm not sure you know who Rachel is. She is the owner of J&R, and
>> works actively at the store....she gets this knowledge by seeing and
>> talking
>> with the customers and with her department heads, who know their
>> customers
>> well. J&R is a very well-run retailer. They know their customers.
>
> So one of the things you might be pointing out is that this Rachel
> is deeply involved in the business and could potentially be either
> influenced by her own self interests or even engaged in a bit
> of business development. You wouldn't deny that that possibility
> exists, I suppose.
>
> But regardless of where she gets her knowledge and what her
> motivations may or may not be, some her conclusions are not
> supported by the the data she provides, simply because the
> data isn't provided. In the section you quoted, there's not
> a shred of data to suggest the age breakdown that's claimed.
> She claims that "these kids that are really ramping up their
> vinyl collections," and provides no age-based breakdown of
> sales.
>
> The data may indeed support her assertions. but she fails to
> provide that data.

Okay, that I can buy....neither did the Times reporter. Nonetheless, this
was a Times-reported story, subjected to the usual controls newspapers put
on their stories....which is somewhat this side of none, I suspect.

As to the charge of bias...it is always a possibility....but since J&R is
seeing their CD sales slide I would think her bias would be towards
supporting CD sales, not vinyl. I really don't think there is a bias at
all....I think a NYT reporter was sent to do a story on a vinyl resurgence
that every music-loving reporter (or musician) in their 20's or 30's is
aware of, and he/she simply chose J&R as the prime source because it is the
largest music retailer in NYC.

"Arny Krueger" > wrote in message
...

>snip opinion to get to factual basis<

>
> One irony is that not too long ago, Vinyl was more like 1% of the total
> market. Now its 0.37%. Where I come from, that's a 63% loss of market
> share.
> Even though the actual numbers of product sold go up, the market share
> appears to be continuing to all off a cliff.
>

Uh, Arny....CD and total market sales are falling; LP sales are rising. You
don't have to be a genius at math to know that means that LP's share is
increasing.

On Dec 7, 8:55=A0pm, bob > wrote:
> On Dec 7, 10:00=3DA0pm, Scott > wrote:
>
> > On Dec 7, 5:05=3D3DA0pm, bob > wrote:
>
> > > "Keep growing" is overstated, What we have here is a couple years of
> > > growth after decades of decline and stagnation.
>
> > Not really sure how a fact stated as a fact can be an overstatement.
> > vinyl sales have been in fairly constant growth for the past decade.
> > But there has been a substantial spike in the last couple years.
>
> A fact is something you don't just make up. "Vinyl sales have been in
> fairly constant growth for the past decade," doesn't qualify as a
> fact.

You might want to check the facts before making such a claim about
what is and is not a fact.

"The booming trend became apparent in 2003. Nielsen SoundScan
announced that ?formats classified as ?Other? (largely vinyl, but
including a small number of DVD audio- albums) showed an increase of
more than 30 per cent in the period 2000-2003.? (Hayes 2006) That same
year The National Association of Recording Merchandisers (NARM)
reported that sales of new and used vinyl records combined had
increased by more than 300 percent since 2000, bringing in $67
million. New CDs alone brought in more than $12 billion. The
mainstream was obviously in the digital domain, but vinyl replay as a
subculture was definitely on the rise. (Manez, 2003) The owner of
independent reissue label Sundazed in New York commented: ?I don't
consider it a small niche anymore. At Sundazed, we did half a million
in sales in vinyl in 2003. That's not small potatoes. "It has become
so much more mainstream that even the lay person knows something's
going on.? (Petrick, 2004) Yet the biggest boom was still to come. 6.4
Vinyl is back in the (youth) mainstream Last year, Virgin Megastores
UK announced it would re-arrange its stores to better accommodate
vinyl records. According to the company, ?up to 70 percent of sales of
new releases are vinyl.? (Glover, 2006). In 2007, in the UK Virgin
Megastores, vinyl outsells CDs 80% to 20% for albums available on both
formats. (Lindich, 2007) Even the 7? vinyl single has returned.
According to the British Phonographic Industry (BPI), ?annual sales of
vinyl singles in the U.K. rose sixfold, accounting for 14.7 percent of
all physical singles sales in 2005, up from 12.2 percent in 2004.? Of
course this applies to customers actually coming into stores to buy
music on a physical carrier. However, Virgin Megastores UK predicts
that digital music downloads "will account for no more than 10 percent
of the overall market by 2009. The company hopes its vinyl strategy ?
will offer consumers enough added value to head off growing
competition from cut-price supermarket CD offers and internet download
services." (Glover, 2006) Also chain store HMV agrees that vinyl is
back and the company has been rapidly expanding its record racks to
meet rising demand. (Allen, 2007)"

http://web.mac.com/dobbelsteen/iWeb/...esis-final.pdf

On Tue, 8 Dec 2009 06:25:25 -0800, Arny Krueger wrote
(in article >):

> "Dick Pierce" > wrote in message
>
>
>> Harry Lavo wrote:
>
>>> Sales of vinyl albums have been climbing steadily for
>>> several years, tromping on the notion that the rebound
>>> was just a fad. Through late November, more than 2.1
>>> million vinyl records had been sold in 2009, an increase
>>> of more than 35 percent in a year, according to Nielsen
>>> Soundscan. That total, though it represents less than 1
>>> percent of all album sales, including CDs and digital
>>> downloads, is the highest for vinyl records in any year
>>> since Nielsen began tracking them in 1991. "
>
>> The same source quotes 2008 CD album sales at 428 million
>> units, and song downloads at 1 billion units. So,
>> attempting to compare 2008 apples to 2008 oranges, that's
>> 428 million cd album sales vs 1.6 million vinyl record
>> sales, making vinyl sales account for 0.37%
>> of the total album market.
>
> The executive summary is that "A rising tide lifts all boats".
>
>> Put it in a slightly different perspective, that's about
>> 1.43 CDs for every person in the United states, vs. one
>> vinyl LP for every 188 persons.
>
>> Another perspective: assume $5 per CD and $10 per LP,
>> that's 2.1G$
>> for CD, and 0.024G$ for LP.
>
> Considering that many of us can remember when the LP had close to 100%
> market share, 0.37% seems like a massive fall from "grace"

But this renewed interest, though small and certainly a niche market by any
stretch, does show that there is life left in the LP and it's far ffrom down
for the count.
>
>> How their data, as revealed, suggests that this is fueled
>> by purchases of the "iPod generation," is certainly a
>> stretch. Where's the breakdown by age, for example?
>
> One irony is that there seems to be amazing amounts of interest in LPs among
> people in their late 30s and early 40s. For many of us older folk, we
> remember when the LP was all we had, and that can be amazingly effective
> aversion therapy.

I remember, and I don't see it as "aversion therapy" at all. I have no bias
against vinyl and I regard it as just another viable source of music. In some
cases, I prefer it, in some I'd rather have the CD or other digital source.

>> Further, there's no breakdown on how many of those sales
>> constitute new vs. resale/preowned product (in either
>> case, to be fair).
>
> Given how often we see gleeful posts about "Amazing LP Finds" found at the
> local Goodwill store, it seems like recycled product is a bigger segment of
> the LP market. One of the keys to any market for used product is people who
> want to discard the product in question. Listening to LPs surely makes me
> want to discard them if I have a viable alternative.

And Interview I saw on the local news last night with the owner of three
stores in the SF Bay Area dedicated to vinyl (but also selling CDs) indicated
that there was a LOT of new vinyl available. Certainly the latest catalogue I
received from "Music Direct" has page after page of new LPs. There is a store
near me that sells nothing but vinyl and record-playing equipment, he has had
to move into larger quarters to accommodate the increased vinyl catalogue. I
realize that all of this is simply anecdotal "evidence", but when a local TV
news program in a market as large as this one takes notice, it certainly seem
s that something is happening in this market.

But as I said in another post, I doubt seriously if I'll be buying much vinyl
from now on. I have thousands of records, mostly everything I want
(classical, film scores and some jazz), and when I buy music these days, it's
almost entirely CD/SACD.
>
>> But the noise in the CD data is larger by a lot than the
>> total LP sales.
>
> One irony is that not too long ago, Vinyl was more like 1% of the total
> market. Now its 0.37%. Where I come from, that's a 63% loss of market share.
> Even though the actual numbers of product sold go up, the market share
> appears to be continuing to all off a cliff.

Not really important. It's the sales numbers that represent profit, not
market share. And with CD sales tanking the way that they are (in favor of
MP3 downloads, I suspect) I'll bet that market share vis-a-vis CD will see an
increase. Vinyl, the music source that refuses to go away. I'm happy about
that because it means that I will have sources of turntables, arms,
cartridges and phono stages as far into perpetuity as I'll need.

"Harry Lavo" > wrote in message


> "Arny Krueger" > wrote in message
> ...

>> snip opinion to get to factual basis<

>> One irony is that not too long ago, Vinyl was more like
>> 1% of the total market. Now its 0.37%. Where I come
>> from, that's a 63% loss of market share.

>> Even though the actual numbers of product sold go up,
>> the market share appears to be continuing to all off a
>> cliff.

> Uh, Arny....CD and total market sales are falling; LP
> sales are rising. You don't have to be a genius at math
> to know that means that LP's share is increasing.

Harry, you haven't dealt with the fact that Vinyl's market share was far
more, about 3 times more just a few years ago. OK, maybe the sales of vinyl
went up in the past statistical period, compared to the previous one. That
doesn't make it a meaningful trend.

Back a couple-3-4 years back when vinyl's market share was around 1% I
suggested that it might due to media being sold to dance clubs and DJs for
scratching. Interestingly enough, a digital alternative to mechanical
scratching was developed, and now vinyl's market share is more like 0.37%.

Hmmmm.

That begs the question of why vinyl's sales went up just lately. The most
recent relevant technological advance was the under-$200 USB turntable.
Think that might be it - people picking up some new media to see what their
newly-hyped cheap LP playback hardware actually sounds like?

Hmmmm.

"Dick Pierce" > wrote in message
...
> Harry Lavo wrote:
>> The Times reporter didn't say it wasn't a fad -- the ower of J&R said it
>> wasn't a fad. Who's better to judge....you, or she who talks to and
>> caters
>> to her customers?
>
> Well, without her supplying the data from which she drew
> her conclusions, the rest of us are excluded from any
> ability to judge. Not only can't we draw any reasonable
> comclusions of our own due to the absence of data, we
> have nothing to evaluate the veracity of hers.
>
> I, for one, am not willing to accept her assertions,
> given that she is making statements that are directly
> influenced by and could influence her business without
> some skepticism.
>
> She could well be right: but there's NO data to suggest
> that. She could just as well be wrong, and there's no
> data to suggest that either.
>
> There's no data.
>

That's a reasonable position, Dick. All I am saying she is well positioned
to judge as opposed to many other of us. I just found it another in an
interesting string of antecdotes the pickup in this market over the last
five or so years. She struck me as a reasonably well-positioned source.

Not directly related, but I have a young son (age 25) who is a musician and
has his own band, and he was telling me of the vinyl resurgence five years
ago (we never talked about it, so he didn't know that I already knew
something about it although he did know I still had a lot of records, many
of which I played from time to time). He asked me at that time for a
turntable, and as a result, received a Dual 704 with Shure cartridge that I
had bought and was planning to resell on ebay. My daughter (age 29) came in
one day about two years ago with a bag containing seven used LP's that she
had bought....mostly early '70's rock. She currently does not have her own
apartment, so her stereo is in storage. She asked me to transfer them to CD
so she could play them in her car. Her comment: I wish cars still came with
cassette decks...I liked them better.

By my calculations, 320.42 angels can dance on the head of a standard
brass stick-pin of approximately 1mm in diameter.

Vinyl has a place in the audio repertoire. That place appears (in
quantity) to be increasing in size as measured at one particular
moment recently. As compared to all other possible source media, it
may be decreasing in relative percentage. So what? It is still
increasing.

It remains a viable medium and is sought after by a sufficient
proportion of the general public as to continue its viability and
create continuing opportunities for those that use it.

Further discussion of aspects of the continuing survival and
continuing viability of the medium would require delving into the
somatic characteristics of the various angels - something we might
agree to be a rather silly endeavor.

Peter Wieck
Melrose Park, PA

On Dec 8, 3:54=A0pm, "Arny Krueger" > wrote:
> "Harry Lavo" > wrote in message
>
>
>
> > "Arny Krueger" > wrote in message
> ...
> >> snip opinion to get to factual basis<
> >> One irony is that not too long ago, Vinyl was more like
> >> 1% of the total market. Now its 0.37%. Where I come
> >> from, that's a 63% loss of market share.
> >> Even though the actual numbers of product sold go up,
> >> the market share appears to be continuing to all off a
> >> cliff.
> > Uh, Arny....CD and total market sales are falling; LP
> > sales are rising. =A0You don't have to be a genius at math
> > to know that means that LP's share is increasing.
>
> Harry, you haven't dealt with the fact that Vinyl's market share was far
> more, about 3 times more just a few years ago. OK, maybe the sales of vin=
yl
> went up in the past statistical period, compared to the previous one. Tha=
t
> doesn't make it a meaningful trend.
>
> Back a couple-3-4 years back when vinyl's market share was around 1% I
> suggested that it might due to media being sold to dance clubs and DJs fo=
r
> scratching. =A0Interestingly enough, a digital alternative to mechanical
> scratching was developed, and now vinyl's market share is more like 0.37%=
..
>
> Hmmmm.

market share is really irrelevant. The actual sales of vinyl has gone
up consistantly for many years and has enjoyed a substantial spike in
the last two years. The people selling it don't worry about market
share, they worry about actual sales. If you are in the business of
making records business is really good right now. pretty cool given
this econemy.


>
> That begs the question of why vinyl's sales went up just lately. The most
> recent relevant technological advance was the under-$200 USB turntable.

The question has been pretty much answered. Many causes are at work
but the unsal recent spike is largely due to the cool factor.


> Think that might be it - people picking up some new media to see what the=
ir
> newly-hyped cheap LP playback hardware actually sounds like?
>
> Hmmmm.

I doubt that has had that big an impact.

"Arny Krueger" > wrote in message
...
> "Harry Lavo" > wrote in message
>
>
>> "Arny Krueger" > wrote in message
>> ...
>
>>> snip opinion to get to factual basis<
>
>>> One irony is that not too long ago, Vinyl was more like
>>> 1% of the total market. Now its 0.37%. Where I come
>>> from, that's a 63% loss of market share.
>
>>> Even though the actual numbers of product sold go up,
>>> the market share appears to be continuing to all off a
>>> cliff.
>
>> Uh, Arny....CD and total market sales are falling; LP
>> sales are rising. You don't have to be a genius at math
>> to know that means that LP's share is increasing.
>
> Harry, you haven't dealt with the fact that Vinyl's market share was far
> more, about 3 times more just a few years ago. OK, maybe the sales of
> vinyl
> went up in the past statistical period, compared to the previous one. That
> doesn't make it a meaningful trend.
>
> Back a couple-3-4 years back when vinyl's market share was around 1% I
> suggested that it might due to media being sold to dance clubs and DJs for
> scratching. Interestingly enough, a digital alternative to mechanical
> scratching was developed, and now vinyl's market share is more like 0.37%.
>
> Hmmmm.

Hmmm, please read Scotts post corraborating the rise in vinyl sales over
this decade. You are getting yourself further and further out on a bias
limb. The main vinyl aversion around here seems to be yours.

> That begs the question of why vinyl's sales went up just lately. The most
> recent relevant technological advance was the under-$200 USB turntable.
> Think that might be it - people picking up some new media to see what
> their
> newly-hyped cheap LP playback hardware actually sounds like?

Don't be rediculous....people without vinyl don't buy a turntable (even a
cheap one) and THEN buy something to play on it, if they don't have
intention to use it. No the cheap turntables are for older folks like you
and I who are not into quality sound particularly, and just want something
to get their vinyl onto a computer as you've been urging them to do. The
kids are buying direct-drives and lower end belt drives in order to play
their vinyl. They might copy it onto a cd for the car or an iPod for
personal use, but they often play the vinyl at home.

And you are completely overlooking the substantial sales of
medium-to-higher-priced turntables and sales of $25-35 per disk premium
vinyl that is selling to reasonably well-heeled audio enthusiasts.

"Harry Lavo" > wrote in message


> That's a reasonable position, Dick. All I am saying she
> is well positioned to judge as opposed to many other of
> us. I just found it another in an interesting string of
> antecdotes the pickup in this market over the last
> five or so years. She struck me as a reasonably
> well-positioned source.

I question the logic. The management of a single retail store or a small
retail chain is basically just one small data point.

Furthermore, anybody whose making money selling a certain kind of product is
obviously biased.

Let's face it, only a miniscule percentage of all retailers of media or
audio electronics even bother with vinyl any more.

When you see a news story about LPs, ask yourself - would this be news if it
wasn't about LPs? What makes it news is how improbable it is, all other
things considered.


> Not directly related, but I have a young son (age 25) who
> is a musician and has his own band, and he was telling me
> of the vinyl resurgence five years ago (we never talked
> about it, so he didn't know that I already knew something
> about it although he did know I still had a lot of
> records, many of which I played from time to time). He
> asked me at that time for a turntable, and as a result,
> received a Dual 704 with Shure cartridge that I had
> bought and was planning to resell on ebay.

Letsee, like father, like son?

> My daughter
> (age 29) came in one day about two years ago with a bag
> containing seven used LP's that she had bought....mostly
> early '70's rock. She currently does not have her own
> apartment, so her stereo is in storage. She asked me to
> transfer them to CD so she could play them in her car.

That makes sense, and just shows how unusable LPs are by modern standards.

> Her comment: I wish cars still came with cassette
> decks...I liked them better.

She obviously never saw the many cassettes, twisted tape hanging out like a
long skinny banner, that ended up on the sides of many a busy road, thrown
there in fits of absolute frustration.