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Harry Lavo Harry Lavo is offline
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Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

The New York Times has a feature article on Record and Turntable sales in
Sunday's edition. The following is just a partial quote from the article:

"Rachelle Friedman, the co-owner of J&R, said the store is selling more
vinyl and turntables than it has in at least a decade, fueled largely by
growing demand from members of the iPod generation.

'It's all these kids that are really ramping up their vinyl collections,'
Ms. Friedman said. 'New customers are discovering the quality of the sound.
They're discovering liner notes and graphics.' In many instances, the vinyl
album of today is thicker and sounds better than those during vinyl's heyday
in the 1960s and 1970s.

Sales of vinyl albums have been climbing steadily for several years,
tromping on the notion that the rebound was just a fad. Through late
November, more than 2.1 million vinyl records had been sold in 2009, an
increase of more than 35 percent in a year, according to Nielsen Soundscan.
That total, though it represents less than 1 percent of all album sales,
including CDs and digital downloads, is the highest for vinyl records in any
year since Nielsen began tracking them in 1991. "

--NYTimes, December 6, 2009

--
Harry Lavo
Holyoke, MA


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Robert Peirce Robert Peirce is offline
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Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

In article ,
Dick Pierce wrote:

Harry Lavo wrote:
Sales of vinyl albums have been climbing steadily for several years,
tromping on the notion that the rebound was just a fad.


The same source quotes 2008 CD album sales at 428 million units, and
song downloads at 1 billion units. So, attempting to compare 2008
apples to 2008 oranges, that's 428 million cd album sales vs 1.6
million vinyl record sales, making vinyl sales account for 0.37%
of the total album market.


I think the point is that sales of LPs keep growing, which is a
surprise. CD sales, last I heard, were declining. I'm not sure about
downloads, but they are probably growing as well.

The number of units clearly is very low, but I think most people
expected them to disappear by now.
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bob bob is offline
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Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

Robert wrote:

I think the point is that sales of LPs keep growing, which is a
surprise.


"Keep growing" is overstated, What we have here is a couple years of
growth after decades of decline and stagnation.

The interesting question is, Why? I don't think this is audiophile-
driven. Their demand for vinyl was being met in the late stagnant
years. I suspect the article is right about vinyl now appealing to a
younger cohort, as sort of a retro fad. Nothing wrong with that, but
fads have limits, too, and we may well see vinyl sales plateau fairly
soon.

Just as an aside, the quality of the gear these records are being
played on is very depressing.

bob

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Harry Lavo Harry Lavo is offline
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Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

"Dick Pierce" wrote in message
...
Harry Lavo wrote:
Sales of vinyl albums have been climbing steadily for several years,
tromping on the notion that the rebound was just a fad. Through late
November, more than 2.1 million vinyl records had been sold in 2009, an
increase of more than 35 percent in a year, according to Nielsen
Soundscan.
That total, though it represents less than 1 percent of all album sales,
including CDs and digital downloads, is the highest for vinyl records in
any
year since Nielsen began tracking them in 1991. "


The same source quotes 2008 CD album sales at 428 million units, and
song downloads at 1 billion units. So, attempting to compare 2008
apples to 2008 oranges, that's 428 million cd album sales vs 1.6
million vinyl record sales, making vinyl sales account for 0.37%
of the total album market.

Put it in a slightly different perspective, that's about 1.43 CDs for
every person in the United states, vs. one vinyl LP for every 188
persons.

Another perspective: assume $5 per CD and $10 per LP, that's 2.1G$
for CD, and 0.024G$ for LP.

How their data, as revealed, suggests that this is fueled by purchases
of the "iPod generation," is certainly a stretch. Where's the breakdown
by age, for example?

Further, there's no breakdown on how many of those sales constitute
new vs resale/preowned product (in either case, to be fair).

But the noise in the CD data is larger by a lot than the total LP
sales.


Dick, I'm not sure you know who Rachel is. She is the owner of J&R, and
works actively at the store....she gets this knowledge by seeing and talking
with the customers and with her department heads, who know their customers
well. J&R is a very well-run retailer. They know their customers.

[ excess quotation removed -- dsr ]
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Harry Lavo Harry Lavo is offline
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Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

"bob" wrote in message
...
Robert wrote:

I think the point is that sales of LPs keep growing, which is a
surprise.


"Keep growing" is overstated, What we have here is a couple years of
growth after decades of decline and stagnation.

The interesting question is, Why? I don't think this is audiophile-
driven. Their demand for vinyl was being met in the late stagnant
years. I suspect the article is right about vinyl now appealing to a
younger cohort, as sort of a retro fad. Nothing wrong with that, but
fads have limits, too, and we may well see vinyl sales plateau fairly
soon.

Just as an aside, the quality of the gear these records are being
played on is very depressing.

bob



Did you miss, or simply choose to ignore her comment about it not being a
fad? See my comments to Dick Pierce for more on this.




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Scott[_6_] Scott[_6_] is offline
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Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

On Dec 7, 5:05=A0pm, bob wrote:
Robert wrote:
I think the point is that sales of LPs keep growing, which is a
surprise.


"Keep growing" is overstated, What we have here is a couple years of
growth after decades of decline and stagnation.


Not really sure how a fact stated as a fact can be an overstatement.
vinyl sales have been in fairly constant growth for the past decade.
But there has been a substantial spike in the last couple years.


The interesting question is, Why? I don't think this is audiophile-
driven.


No doubt the constant growth over the past decade has to some degree
been driven by audiophiles. One need look no further than the huge
increase in audiophile vinyl titles available today compared to 10 and
15 years ago to see that. But the recent spike in the last couple
years I suspect has been more about vinyl becoming cool.

Their demand for vinyl was being met in the late stagnant
years.


Not the audiophile demand.

I suspect the article is right about vinyl now appealing to a
younger cohort, as sort of a retro fad. Nothing wrong with that, but
fads have limits, too, and we may well see vinyl sales plateau fairly
soon.


One can only hope. This fad has actually had some ill effects on vinyl
for audiophiles.



Just as an aside, the quality of the gear these records are being
played on is very depressing.



Which records?

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bob bob is offline
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Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

On Dec 7, 9:04=A0pm, "Harry Lavo" wrote:

Did you miss, or simply choose to ignore her comment about it not being a
fad? =A0See my comments to Dick Pierce for more on this.


Just because a New York Times reporter says something is not a fad
does not mean that it is not a fad. My guess is there's a retro
coolness thing going on here, which may or may not last. It may
plateau, it may fade away again, we just don't know yet.

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On Dec 7, 10:00=A0pm, Scott wrote:
On Dec 7, 5:05=3DA0pm, bob wrote:

"Keep growing" is overstated, What we have here is a couple years of
growth after decades of decline and stagnation.


Not really sure how a fact stated as a fact can be an overstatement.
vinyl sales have been in fairly constant growth for the past decade.
But there has been a substantial spike in the last couple years.


A fact is something you don't just make up. "Vinyl sales have been in
fairly constant growth for the past decade," doesn't qualify as a
fact.

bob

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Arny Krueger Arny Krueger is offline
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Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

"Dick Pierce" wrote in message


Harry Lavo wrote:


Sales of vinyl albums have been climbing steadily for
several years, tromping on the notion that the rebound
was just a fad. Through late November, more than 2.1
million vinyl records had been sold in 2009, an increase
of more than 35 percent in a year, according to Nielsen
Soundscan. That total, though it represents less than 1
percent of all album sales, including CDs and digital
downloads, is the highest for vinyl records in any year
since Nielsen began tracking them in 1991. "


The same source quotes 2008 CD album sales at 428 million
units, and song downloads at 1 billion units. So,
attempting to compare 2008 apples to 2008 oranges, that's
428 million cd album sales vs 1.6 million vinyl record
sales, making vinyl sales account for 0.37%
of the total album market.


The executive summary is that "A rising tide lifts all boats".

Put it in a slightly different perspective, that's about
1.43 CDs for every person in the United states, vs. one
vinyl LP for every 188 persons.


Another perspective: assume $5 per CD and $10 per LP,
that's 2.1G$
for CD, and 0.024G$ for LP.


Considering that many of us can remember when the LP had close to 100%
market share, 0.37% seems like a massive fall from "grace"

How their data, as revealed, suggests that this is fueled
by purchases of the "iPod generation," is certainly a
stretch. Where's the breakdown by age, for example?


One irony is that there seems to be amazing amounts of interest in LPs among
people in their late 30s and early 40s. For many of us older folk, we
remember when the LP was all we had, and that can be amazingly effective
aversion therapy.

Further, there's no breakdown on how many of those sales
constitute new vs. resale/preowned product (in either
case, to be fair).


Given how often we see gleeful posts about "Amazing LP Finds" found at the
local Goodwill store, it seems like recycled product is a bigger segment of
the LP market. One of the keys to any market for used product is people who
want to discard the product in question. Listening to LPs surely makes me
want to discard them if I have a viable alternative.

But the noise in the CD data is larger by a lot than the
total LP sales.


One irony is that not too long ago, Vinyl was more like 1% of the total
market. Now its 0.37%. Where I come from, that's a 63% loss of market share.
Even though the actual numbers of product sold go up, the market share
appears to be continuing to all off a cliff.


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"bob" wrote in message
...
On Dec 7, 9:04=A0pm, "Harry Lavo" wrote:

Did you miss, or simply choose to ignore her comment about it not being a
fad? =A0See my comments to Dick Pierce for more on this.


Just because a New York Times reporter says something is not a fad
does not mean that it is not a fad. My guess is there's a retro
coolness thing going on here, which may or may not last. It may
plateau, it may fade away again, we just don't know yet.


The Times reporter didn't say it wasn't a fad -- the ower of J&R said it
wasn't a fad. Who's better to judge....you, or she who talks to and caters
to her customers?




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"Dick Pierce" wrote in message
...
Harry Lavo wrote:
"Dick Pierce" wrote in message
...
Further, there's no breakdown on how many of those sales constitute
new vs resale/preowned product (in either case, to be fair).

But the noise in the CD data is larger by a lot than the total LP
sales.


Dick, I'm not sure you know who Rachel is. She is the owner of J&R, and
works actively at the store....she gets this knowledge by seeing and
talking
with the customers and with her department heads, who know their
customers
well. J&R is a very well-run retailer. They know their customers.


So one of the things you might be pointing out is that this Rachel
is deeply involved in the business and could potentially be either
influenced by her own self interests or even engaged in a bit
of business development. You wouldn't deny that that possibility
exists, I suppose.

But regardless of where she gets her knowledge and what her
motivations may or may not be, some her conclusions are not
supported by the the data she provides, simply because the
data isn't provided. In the section you quoted, there's not
a shred of data to suggest the age breakdown that's claimed.
She claims that "these kids that are really ramping up their
vinyl collections," and provides no age-based breakdown of
sales.

The data may indeed support her assertions. but she fails to
provide that data.


Okay, that I can buy....neither did the Times reporter. Nonetheless, this
was a Times-reported story, subjected to the usual controls newspapers put
on their stories....which is somewhat this side of none, I suspect.

As to the charge of bias...it is always a possibility....but since J&R is
seeing their CD sales slide I would think her bias would be towards
supporting CD sales, not vinyl. I really don't think there is a bias at
all....I think a NYT reporter was sent to do a story on a vinyl resurgence
that every music-loving reporter (or musician) in their 20's or 30's is
aware of, and he/she simply chose J&R as the prime source because it is the
largest music retailer in NYC.


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"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...

snip opinion to get to factual basis



One irony is that not too long ago, Vinyl was more like 1% of the total
market. Now its 0.37%. Where I come from, that's a 63% loss of market
share.
Even though the actual numbers of product sold go up, the market share
appears to be continuing to all off a cliff.


Uh, Arny....CD and total market sales are falling; LP sales are rising. You
don't have to be a genius at math to know that means that LP's share is
increasing.


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On Dec 7, 8:55=A0pm, bob wrote:
On Dec 7, 10:00=3DA0pm, Scott wrote:

On Dec 7, 5:05=3D3DA0pm, bob wrote:


"Keep growing" is overstated, What we have here is a couple years of
growth after decades of decline and stagnation.


Not really sure how a fact stated as a fact can be an overstatement.
vinyl sales have been in fairly constant growth for the past decade.
But there has been a substantial spike in the last couple years.


A fact is something you don't just make up. "Vinyl sales have been in
fairly constant growth for the past decade," doesn't qualify as a
fact.


You might want to check the facts before making such a claim about
what is and is not a fact.

"The booming trend became apparent in 2003. Nielsen SoundScan
announced that ?formats classified as ?Other? (largely vinyl, but
including a small number of DVD audio- albums) showed an increase of
more than 30 per cent in the period 2000-2003.? (Hayes 2006) That same
year The National Association of Recording Merchandisers (NARM)
reported that sales of new and used vinyl records combined had
increased by more than 300 percent since 2000, bringing in $67
million. New CDs alone brought in more than $12 billion. The
mainstream was obviously in the digital domain, but vinyl replay as a
subculture was definitely on the rise. (Manez, 2003) The owner of
independent reissue label Sundazed in New York commented: ?I don't
consider it a small niche anymore. At Sundazed, we did half a million
in sales in vinyl in 2003. That's not small potatoes. "It has become
so much more mainstream that even the lay person knows something's
going on.? (Petrick, 2004) Yet the biggest boom was still to come. 6.4
Vinyl is back in the (youth) mainstream Last year, Virgin Megastores
UK announced it would re-arrange its stores to better accommodate
vinyl records. According to the company, ?up to 70 percent of sales of
new releases are vinyl.? (Glover, 2006). In 2007, in the UK Virgin
Megastores, vinyl outsells CDs 80% to 20% for albums available on both
formats. (Lindich, 2007) Even the 7? vinyl single has returned.
According to the British Phonographic Industry (BPI), ?annual sales of
vinyl singles in the U.K. rose sixfold, accounting for 14.7 percent of
all physical singles sales in 2005, up from 12.2 percent in 2004.? Of
course this applies to customers actually coming into stores to buy
music on a physical carrier. However, Virgin Megastores UK predicts
that digital music downloads "will account for no more than 10 percent
of the overall market by 2009. The company hopes its vinyl strategy ?
will offer consumers enough added value to head off growing
competition from cut-price supermarket CD offers and internet download
services." (Glover, 2006) Also chain store HMV agrees that vinyl is
back and the company has been rapidly expanding its record racks to
meet rising demand. (Allen, 2007)"

http://web.mac.com/dobbelsteen/iWeb/...esis-final.pdf

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Sonnova Sonnova is offline
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On Tue, 8 Dec 2009 06:25:25 -0800, Arny Krueger wrote
(in article ):

"Dick Pierce" wrote in message


Harry Lavo wrote:


Sales of vinyl albums have been climbing steadily for
several years, tromping on the notion that the rebound
was just a fad. Through late November, more than 2.1
million vinyl records had been sold in 2009, an increase
of more than 35 percent in a year, according to Nielsen
Soundscan. That total, though it represents less than 1
percent of all album sales, including CDs and digital
downloads, is the highest for vinyl records in any year
since Nielsen began tracking them in 1991. "


The same source quotes 2008 CD album sales at 428 million
units, and song downloads at 1 billion units. So,
attempting to compare 2008 apples to 2008 oranges, that's
428 million cd album sales vs 1.6 million vinyl record
sales, making vinyl sales account for 0.37%
of the total album market.


The executive summary is that "A rising tide lifts all boats".

Put it in a slightly different perspective, that's about
1.43 CDs for every person in the United states, vs. one
vinyl LP for every 188 persons.


Another perspective: assume $5 per CD and $10 per LP,
that's 2.1G$
for CD, and 0.024G$ for LP.


Considering that many of us can remember when the LP had close to 100%
market share, 0.37% seems like a massive fall from "grace"


But this renewed interest, though small and certainly a niche market by any
stretch, does show that there is life left in the LP and it's far ffrom down
for the count.

How their data, as revealed, suggests that this is fueled
by purchases of the "iPod generation," is certainly a
stretch. Where's the breakdown by age, for example?


One irony is that there seems to be amazing amounts of interest in LPs among
people in their late 30s and early 40s. For many of us older folk, we
remember when the LP was all we had, and that can be amazingly effective
aversion therapy.


I remember, and I don't see it as "aversion therapy" at all. I have no bias
against vinyl and I regard it as just another viable source of music. In some
cases, I prefer it, in some I'd rather have the CD or other digital source.

Further, there's no breakdown on how many of those sales
constitute new vs. resale/preowned product (in either
case, to be fair).


Given how often we see gleeful posts about "Amazing LP Finds" found at the
local Goodwill store, it seems like recycled product is a bigger segment of
the LP market. One of the keys to any market for used product is people who
want to discard the product in question. Listening to LPs surely makes me
want to discard them if I have a viable alternative.


And Interview I saw on the local news last night with the owner of three
stores in the SF Bay Area dedicated to vinyl (but also selling CDs) indicated
that there was a LOT of new vinyl available. Certainly the latest catalogue I
received from "Music Direct" has page after page of new LPs. There is a store
near me that sells nothing but vinyl and record-playing equipment, he has had
to move into larger quarters to accommodate the increased vinyl catalogue. I
realize that all of this is simply anecdotal "evidence", but when a local TV
news program in a market as large as this one takes notice, it certainly seem
s that something is happening in this market.

But as I said in another post, I doubt seriously if I'll be buying much vinyl
from now on. I have thousands of records, mostly everything I want
(classical, film scores and some jazz), and when I buy music these days, it's
almost entirely CD/SACD.

But the noise in the CD data is larger by a lot than the
total LP sales.


One irony is that not too long ago, Vinyl was more like 1% of the total
market. Now its 0.37%. Where I come from, that's a 63% loss of market share.
Even though the actual numbers of product sold go up, the market share
appears to be continuing to all off a cliff.


Not really important. It's the sales numbers that represent profit, not
market share. And with CD sales tanking the way that they are (in favor of
MP3 downloads, I suspect) I'll bet that market share vis-a-vis CD will see an
increase. Vinyl, the music source that refuses to go away. I'm happy about
that because it means that I will have sources of turntables, arms,
cartridges and phono stages as far into perpetuity as I'll need.
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Arny Krueger Arny Krueger is offline
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"Harry Lavo" wrote in message


"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...


snip opinion to get to factual basis


One irony is that not too long ago, Vinyl was more like
1% of the total market. Now its 0.37%. Where I come
from, that's a 63% loss of market share.


Even though the actual numbers of product sold go up,
the market share appears to be continuing to all off a
cliff.


Uh, Arny....CD and total market sales are falling; LP
sales are rising. You don't have to be a genius at math
to know that means that LP's share is increasing.


Harry, you haven't dealt with the fact that Vinyl's market share was far
more, about 3 times more just a few years ago. OK, maybe the sales of vinyl
went up in the past statistical period, compared to the previous one. That
doesn't make it a meaningful trend.

Back a couple-3-4 years back when vinyl's market share was around 1% I
suggested that it might due to media being sold to dance clubs and DJs for
scratching. Interestingly enough, a digital alternative to mechanical
scratching was developed, and now vinyl's market share is more like 0.37%.

Hmmmm.

That begs the question of why vinyl's sales went up just lately. The most
recent relevant technological advance was the under-$200 USB turntable.
Think that might be it - people picking up some new media to see what their
newly-hyped cheap LP playback hardware actually sounds like?

Hmmmm.



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Harry Lavo Harry Lavo is offline
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"Dick Pierce" wrote in message
...
Harry Lavo wrote:
The Times reporter didn't say it wasn't a fad -- the ower of J&R said it
wasn't a fad. Who's better to judge....you, or she who talks to and
caters
to her customers?


Well, without her supplying the data from which she drew
her conclusions, the rest of us are excluded from any
ability to judge. Not only can't we draw any reasonable
comclusions of our own due to the absence of data, we
have nothing to evaluate the veracity of hers.

I, for one, am not willing to accept her assertions,
given that she is making statements that are directly
influenced by and could influence her business without
some skepticism.

She could well be right: but there's NO data to suggest
that. She could just as well be wrong, and there's no
data to suggest that either.

There's no data.


That's a reasonable position, Dick. All I am saying she is well positioned
to judge as opposed to many other of us. I just found it another in an
interesting string of antecdotes the pickup in this market over the last
five or so years. She struck me as a reasonably well-positioned source.

Not directly related, but I have a young son (age 25) who is a musician and
has his own band, and he was telling me of the vinyl resurgence five years
ago (we never talked about it, so he didn't know that I already knew
something about it although he did know I still had a lot of records, many
of which I played from time to time). He asked me at that time for a
turntable, and as a result, received a Dual 704 with Shure cartridge that I
had bought and was planning to resell on ebay. My daughter (age 29) came in
one day about two years ago with a bag containing seven used LP's that she
had bought....mostly early '70's rock. She currently does not have her own
apartment, so her stereo is in storage. She asked me to transfer them to CD
so she could play them in her car. Her comment: I wish cars still came with
cassette decks...I liked them better.


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Peter Wieck Peter Wieck is offline
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By my calculations, 320.42 angels can dance on the head of a standard
brass stick-pin of approximately 1mm in diameter.

Vinyl has a place in the audio repertoire. That place appears (in
quantity) to be increasing in size as measured at one particular
moment recently. As compared to all other possible source media, it
may be decreasing in relative percentage. So what? It is still
increasing.

It remains a viable medium and is sought after by a sufficient
proportion of the general public as to continue its viability and
create continuing opportunities for those that use it.

Further discussion of aspects of the continuing survival and
continuing viability of the medium would require delving into the
somatic characteristics of the various angels - something we might
agree to be a rather silly endeavor.

Peter Wieck
Melrose Park, PA

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On Dec 8, 3:54=A0pm, "Arny Krueger" wrote:
"Harry Lavo" wrote in message



"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...
snip opinion to get to factual basis
One irony is that not too long ago, Vinyl was more like
1% of the total market. Now its 0.37%. Where I come
from, that's a 63% loss of market share.
Even though the actual numbers of product sold go up,
the market share appears to be continuing to all off a
cliff.

Uh, Arny....CD and total market sales are falling; LP
sales are rising. =A0You don't have to be a genius at math
to know that means that LP's share is increasing.


Harry, you haven't dealt with the fact that Vinyl's market share was far
more, about 3 times more just a few years ago. OK, maybe the sales of vin=

yl
went up in the past statistical period, compared to the previous one. Tha=

t
doesn't make it a meaningful trend.

Back a couple-3-4 years back when vinyl's market share was around 1% I
suggested that it might due to media being sold to dance clubs and DJs fo=

r
scratching. =A0Interestingly enough, a digital alternative to mechanical
scratching was developed, and now vinyl's market share is more like 0.37%=

..

Hmmmm.


market share is really irrelevant. The actual sales of vinyl has gone
up consistantly for many years and has enjoyed a substantial spike in
the last two years. The people selling it don't worry about market
share, they worry about actual sales. If you are in the business of
making records business is really good right now. pretty cool given
this econemy.



That begs the question of why vinyl's sales went up just lately. The most
recent relevant technological advance was the under-$200 USB turntable.


The question has been pretty much answered. Many causes are at work
but the unsal recent spike is largely due to the cool factor.


Think that might be it - people picking up some new media to see what the=

ir
newly-hyped cheap LP playback hardware actually sounds like?

Hmmmm.


I doubt that has had that big an impact.

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"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...
"Harry Lavo" wrote in message


"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...


snip opinion to get to factual basis


One irony is that not too long ago, Vinyl was more like
1% of the total market. Now its 0.37%. Where I come
from, that's a 63% loss of market share.


Even though the actual numbers of product sold go up,
the market share appears to be continuing to all off a
cliff.


Uh, Arny....CD and total market sales are falling; LP
sales are rising. You don't have to be a genius at math
to know that means that LP's share is increasing.


Harry, you haven't dealt with the fact that Vinyl's market share was far
more, about 3 times more just a few years ago. OK, maybe the sales of
vinyl
went up in the past statistical period, compared to the previous one. That
doesn't make it a meaningful trend.

Back a couple-3-4 years back when vinyl's market share was around 1% I
suggested that it might due to media being sold to dance clubs and DJs for
scratching. Interestingly enough, a digital alternative to mechanical
scratching was developed, and now vinyl's market share is more like 0.37%.

Hmmmm.


Hmmm, please read Scotts post corraborating the rise in vinyl sales over
this decade. You are getting yourself further and further out on a bias
limb. The main vinyl aversion around here seems to be yours.

That begs the question of why vinyl's sales went up just lately. The most
recent relevant technological advance was the under-$200 USB turntable.
Think that might be it - people picking up some new media to see what
their
newly-hyped cheap LP playback hardware actually sounds like?


Don't be rediculous....people without vinyl don't buy a turntable (even a
cheap one) and THEN buy something to play on it, if they don't have
intention to use it. No the cheap turntables are for older folks like you
and I who are not into quality sound particularly, and just want something
to get their vinyl onto a computer as you've been urging them to do. The
kids are buying direct-drives and lower end belt drives in order to play
their vinyl. They might copy it onto a cd for the car or an iPod for
personal use, but they often play the vinyl at home.

And you are completely overlooking the substantial sales of
medium-to-higher-priced turntables and sales of $25-35 per disk premium
vinyl that is selling to reasonably well-heeled audio enthusiasts.


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"Harry Lavo" wrote in message


That's a reasonable position, Dick. All I am saying she
is well positioned to judge as opposed to many other of
us. I just found it another in an interesting string of
antecdotes the pickup in this market over the last
five or so years. She struck me as a reasonably
well-positioned source.


I question the logic. The management of a single retail store or a small
retail chain is basically just one small data point.

Furthermore, anybody whose making money selling a certain kind of product is
obviously biased.

Let's face it, only a miniscule percentage of all retailers of media or
audio electronics even bother with vinyl any more.

When you see a news story about LPs, ask yourself - would this be news if it
wasn't about LPs? What makes it news is how improbable it is, all other
things considered.


Not directly related, but I have a young son (age 25) who
is a musician and has his own band, and he was telling me
of the vinyl resurgence five years ago (we never talked
about it, so he didn't know that I already knew something
about it although he did know I still had a lot of
records, many of which I played from time to time). He
asked me at that time for a turntable, and as a result,
received a Dual 704 with Shure cartridge that I had
bought and was planning to resell on ebay.


Letsee, like father, like son?

My daughter
(age 29) came in one day about two years ago with a bag
containing seven used LP's that she had bought....mostly
early '70's rock. She currently does not have her own
apartment, so her stereo is in storage. She asked me to
transfer them to CD so she could play them in her car.


That makes sense, and just shows how unusable LPs are by modern standards.

Her comment: I wish cars still came with cassette
decks...I liked them better.


She obviously never saw the many cassettes, twisted tape hanging out like a
long skinny banner, that ended up on the sides of many a busy road, thrown
there in fits of absolute frustration.




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"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...
"Harry Lavo" wrote in message


That's a reasonable position, Dick. All I am saying she
is well positioned to judge as opposed to many other of
us. I just found it another in an interesting string of
antecdotes the pickup in this market over the last
five or so years. She struck me as a reasonably
well-positioned source.


I question the logic. The management of a single retail store or a small
retail chain is basically just one small data point.


Agreed to the single point, but this does happen to be the largest music
retailer in NYC.....not exactly podunk, Iowa.

Furthermore, anybody whose making money selling a certain kind of product
is
obviously biased.


J&R sells everything electronic, everything music, everything photo,
everything kitchen, every.....man, that's a lot of biases!


Let's face it, only a miniscule percentage of all retailers of media or
audio electronics even bother with vinyl any more.


More and more every year...even Barnes and Noble, about as conservative a
music retailer as there is, is experimenting. And I daresay there are many
more doing so today than ten years ago.

When you see a news story about LPs, ask yourself - would this be news if
it
wasn't about LPs? What makes it news is how improbable it is, all other
things considered.


Certainly is improbably....after all, "Perfect Sound Forever" was supposed
to do in vinyl. It was buried by the press and by engineering types like
yourself....and flowers planted on it. Funny thing happened though. The
ground heaved, and up she came again.....not quite her old self, but living
and breathing. What's not to marvel over/do a story about?


Not directly related, but I have a young son (age 25) who
is a musician and has his own band, and he was telling me
of the vinyl resurgence five years ago (we never talked
about it, so he didn't know that I already knew something
about it although he did know I still had a lot of
records, many of which I played from time to time). He
asked me at that time for a turntable, and as a result,
received a Dual 704 with Shure cartridge that I had
bought and was planning to resell on ebay.


Letsee, like father, like son?


Quite possibly, but the impetus seemed to come from a musician friend who
had started amassing his own vinyl collection. He had never shown much
interest in my vinyl or record playing gear.


My daughter
(age 29) came in one day about two years ago with a bag
containing seven used LP's that she had bought....mostly
early '70's rock. She currently does not have her own
apartment, so her stereo is in storage. She asked me to
transfer them to CD so she could play them in her car.


That makes sense, and just shows how unusable LPs are by modern standards.


Do you understand the definition of "non-sequitor"?


Her comment: I wish cars still came with cassette
decks...I liked them better.


She obviously never saw the many cassettes, twisted tape hanging out like
a
long skinny banner, that ended up on the sides of many a busy road, thrown
there in fits of absolute frustration.


Neither have I, and I lived through the cassette period. She simply
expressed a preference....I didn't grill her to find out why. I assumed
nostalgia for when she was a little girl and used to bring her cassettes
along on trips. But who knows, maybe she's just another budding, totally
irrational audiophile, out to annoy you.


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Harry Lavo wrote:
"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...
"Harry Lavo" wrote in message


snip

Let's face it, only a miniscule percentage of all retailers of media or
audio electronics even bother with vinyl any more.


More and more every year...even Barnes and Noble, about as conservative a
music retailer as there is, is experimenting. And I daresay there are many
more doing so today than ten years ago.


Not around here they (meaning the *many* dealers) aren't (Phoenix area).
I can say that LP's are a much higher *percentage* of the music
available for sale than at any time in recent memory. An artifact of a
small resurgence in vinyl, and primarily a massive decrease in the
numbers and variety of CD's being stocked. Barnes & Noble may be
experimenting with vinyl on-line, but I don't look for any in the stores
here. Borders no longer even sells music - in any format - here in the
Phoenix area. They dumped the lot this year; it's on-line only now.


When you see a news story about LPs, ask yourself - would this be news if
it
wasn't about LPs? What makes it news is how improbable it is, all other
things considered.


Certainly is improbably....after all, "Perfect Sound Forever" was supposed
to do in vinyl.


And, it basically did. Just as streaming and digital downloads (or
their as yet undeveloped successors) will eventually do in CD. But, as
with riding horses, driving Model T's or Stanley Steamers, there will
likely always be niche hobbyist markets for both vinyl and CD. As long
as that niche is commercially viable for a few fringe players, the media
will continue to be available. But, they will, nonetheless, be legacy
technologies relegated to niche constituencies.

In fact, the apparently unavoidable slide from brick and mortar
storefront to non-stocking e-tailers is likely vinyl's best friend (and
will be CD's as well) since it creates availability, albeit not very
timely, without a retailer having to stock slow/no moving inventory.


It was buried by the press and by engineering types like
yourself....and flowers planted on it. Funny thing happened though. The
ground heaved, and up she came again.....not quite her old self, but living
and breathing. What's not to marvel over/do a story about?


The point is, it's not much of a story IMO. There are a number of
factors that can influence such minor upticks in vinyl sales (e.g.
e-tailing as mentioned previously). Good vinyl playback equipment is not
cheap, so having a listener base that has invested heavily in equipment
(and that has the concomitant disposable income) and likes vinyl sound
supplies a stable buyer base. As more titles are made available - or
higher quality pressings / recordings/ etc. - that same base will likely
buy more, stimulating more variety of production. That is not, however,
sustainable as a method of long term growth unless the base is increased
significantly. However, having that stable base, when even a modest
"fad" of younger folks getting into vinyl occurs (of which I have
personally met exactly *none*) will appear as significant.

I mean, look at the album numbers from 2007-2008:

LP's - increased by 1.6M units - which is well more than double;
CD's - decreased by 126.4M units
Downloads - increased by 14.4M units

The *story*, IMO, is that overall album sales dropped by 108.6M units!

And the uptick in downloads (excluding singles, and DVDs) is almost 9
times the increase in LP's. And that 'massive' increase in LP's is still
only 0.36% of the total sales (for a total LP sales of 0.66%). I mean
let's face it, when the overall album market (comprised of 3 basic media
types) drops 20%, a 0.4% relative change in one medium is statistically
insignificant.

snip

She obviously never saw the many cassettes, twisted tape hanging out like
a
long skinny banner, that ended up on the sides of many a busy road, thrown
there in fits of absolute frustration.


Neither have I, and I lived through the cassette period.


Wow - you obviously didn't get out much then. They were rather
ubiquitous in the 70's around these parts.

Keith

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On Dec 8, 2:50=A0pm, "Harry Lavo" wrote:

The Times reporter didn't say it wasn't a fad -- the ower of J&R said it
wasn't a fad. =A0Who's better to judge....you, or she who talks to and ca=

ters
to her customers?


Check again, Harry. The sentence has neither quotes nor attribution.
It's the reporter's words.

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Harry Lavo wrote:
"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...

"Harry Lavo" wrote in message



That's a reasonable position, Dick. All I am saying she
is well positioned to judge as opposed to many other of
us. I just found it another in an interesting string of
antecdotes the pickup in this market over the last
five or so years. She struck me as a reasonably
well-positioned source.


I question the logic. The management of a single retail store or a small
retail chain is basically just one small data point.


Agreed to the single point, but this does happen to be the largest music
retailer in NYC.....not exactly podunk, Iowa.


But it's but one data point, and missing data at that.

J&R sells everything electronic, everything music, everything photo,
everything kitchen, every.....man,


So? How is that relevant?

that's a lot of biases!


Yes, it is. Are we to think that people are incapable of holding
more than a small handful of biases and opinions at once? Indeed,
I might even suggest that people are quite capably of not only
holding a multitude of biases simultaneously, but that many of
them may contradict and conflict, as irrational as that may seem.

Certainly is improbably....after all, "Perfect Sound Forever" was supposed
to do in vinyl.


Harry, if you have problems with the "perfect sound forever"
slogan, take it up with the *marketing* genius who came up
with it. The ongoing attempts to lay that at the feet of
the technical people invilved in the medium might feel good,
but such attempts are quite misdirected and, frankly, are
getting very tiring.

It was buried by the press and by engineering types like
yourself....and flowers planted on it. Funny thing happened though. The
ground heaved, and up she came again.....not quite her old self, but living
and breathing. What's not to marvel over/do a story about?


Gee, sounds like a zombie movie to me! Where's my nerf gun
bag of tube socks?

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On Dec 9, 5:25=A0pm, Keith wrote:

I mean, look at the album numbers from 2007-2008:

LP's - increased by 1.6M units - which is well more than double;
CD's - decreased by 126.4M units
Downloads - increased by 14.4M units

The *story*, IMO, is that overall album sales dropped by 108.6M units!

And the uptick in downloads (excluding singles, and DVDs) is almost 9
times the increase in LP's. And that 'massive' increase in LP's is still
only 0.36% of the total sales (for a total LP sales of 0.66%). =A0I mean
let's face it, when the overall album market (comprised of 3 basic media
types) drops 20%, a 0.4% relative change in one medium is statistically
insignificant.


These are RIAA shipment figures, if anyone cares. They understate the
download side, which is predominantly singles and rose by 200M units,
equivalent to about 20M albums' worth. Add in the, um, "unofficial"
downloads, and vinyl's market share looks even more puny.

bob



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"bob" wrote in message
...
On Dec 8, 2:50=A0pm, "Harry Lavo" wrote:

The Times reporter didn't say it wasn't a fad -- the ower of J&R said it
wasn't a fad. =A0Who's better to judge....you, or she who talks to and
ca=

ters
to her customers?


Check again, Harry. The sentence has neither quotes nor attribution.
It's the reporter's words.


I stand corected, Bob, thank you. In fact it was the reporters conclusion.
Whether or not she may have influenced that conclusion we don't know....but
apparently some facts did, as he said in full "Sales of vinyl albums have
been climbing steadily for several years, tromping on the notion that the
rebound was just a fad."

He might have been looking at something like the list of evidence that Scott
published here just a few days ago, which if I may quote in full, was as
follows:

"The booming trend became apparent in 2003. Nielsen SoundScan
announced that ?formats classified as ?Other? (largely vinyl, but
including a small number of DVD audio- albums) showed an increase of
more than 30 per cent in the period 2000-2003.? (Hayes 2006) That same
year The National Association of Recording Merchandisers (NARM)
reported that sales of new and used vinyl records combined had
increased by more than 300 percent since 2000, bringing in $67
million. New CDs alone brought in more than $12 billion. The
mainstream was obviously in the digital domain, but vinyl replay as a
subculture was definitely on the rise. (Manez, 2003) The owner of
independent reissue label Sundazed in New York commented: ?I don't
consider it a small niche anymore. At Sundazed, we did half a million
in sales in vinyl in 2003. That's not small potatoes. "It has become
so much more mainstream that even the lay person knows something's
going on.? (Petrick, 2004) Yet the biggest boom was still to come. 6.4
Vinyl is back in the (youth) mainstream Last year, Virgin Megastores
UK announced it would re-arrange its stores to better accommodate
vinyl records. According to the company, ?up to 70 percent of sales of
new releases are vinyl.? (Glover, 2006). In 2007, in the UK Virgin
Megastores, vinyl outsells CDs 80% to 20% for albums available on both
formats. (Lindich, 2007) Even the 7? vinyl single has returned.
According to the British Phonographic Industry (BPI), ?annual sales of
vinyl singles in the U.K. rose sixfold, accounting for 14.7 percent of
all physical singles sales in 2005, up from 12.2 percent in 2004.? Of
course this applies to customers actually coming into stores to buy
music on a physical carrier. However, Virgin Megastores UK predicts
that digital music downloads "will account for no more than 10 percent
of the overall market by 2009. The company hopes its vinyl strategy ?
will offer consumers enough added value to head off growing
competition from cut-price supermarket CD offers and internet download
services." (Glover, 2006) Also chain store HMV agrees that vinyl is
back and the company has been rapidly expanding its record racks to
meet rising demand. (Allen, 2007)"

Let's see....2003 to 2009....does that constitute a trend?


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On Dec 9, 9:09=A0pm, "Harry Lavo" wrote:

He might have been looking at something like the list of evidence that Sc=

ott
published here just a few days ago, which if I may quote in full, was as
follows:

=A0"The booming trend became apparent in 2003. Nielsen SoundScan
announced that ?formats classified as ?Other? (largely vinyl, but
including a small number of DVD audio- albums) showed an increase of
more than 30 per cent in the period 2000-2003.?


That also includes SACD, which was introduced in that period and, with
DVD-A, likely accounts for the totality of the increase.

(Hayes 2006) That same
year The National Association of Recording Merchandisers (NARM)
reported that sales of new and used vinyl records combined had
increased by more than 300 percent since 2000,


For every person who buys a used LP, somebody gets rid of one. So
that's evidence of disinterest as well as interest.

Look, there's no question that there's been an uptick, and the data we
have isn't good enough to tell us exactly when it started. The NYT
cites only an increase from 2008 to 2009, according to Nielsen
Soundscan. RIAA shipments began rising in 2007. And, let's face it, if
this had been a trend that had been going on for years, the NYT
probably wouldn't have been interested in writing about it. This is a
man-bites-dog story precisely because the turnaround is so recent.

bob

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"Dick Pierce" wrote in message
...
Harry Lavo wrote:
"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...

"Harry Lavo" wrote in message



That's a reasonable position, Dick. All I am saying she
is well positioned to judge as opposed to many other of
us. I just found it another in an interesting string of
antecdotes the pickup in this market over the last
five or so years. She struck me as a reasonably
well-positioned source.

I question the logic. The management of a single retail store or a small
retail chain is basically just one small data point.


Agreed to the single point, but this does happen to be the largest music
retailer in NYC.....not exactly podunk, Iowa.


But it's but one data point, and missing data at that.


Yep, so clearly it is anecdotal....but based on her own multiyear statistics
and experience in a city that is often a forerunner of trends elsewhere.


J&R sells everything electronic, everything music, everything photo,
everything kitchen, every.....man,


So? How is that relevant?


Because she has no apparent commercial reason to be biased towards vinyl and
against other forms of music and machines to retrieve it, which she also
sells.


that's a lot of biases!


Yes, it is. Are we to think that people are incapable of holding
more than a small handful of biases and opinions at once? Indeed,
I might even suggest that people are quite capably of not only
holding a multitude of biases simultaneously, but that many of
them may contradict and conflict, as irrational as that may seem.


Yes indeedy, they can (I was a student of behavioral psychology back in
business school). But I suspect commercial biases are a bit more rational
than that.


Certainly is improbably....after all, "Perfect Sound Forever" was
supposed to do in vinyl.


Harry, if you have problems with the "perfect sound forever"
slogan, take it up with the *marketing* genius who came up
with it. The ongoing attempts to lay that at the feet of
the technical people invilved in the medium might feel good,
but such attempts are quite misdirected and, frankly, are
getting very tiring.


I fail to see above where I singled out engineers or technical people...I
was simply referring to the great "brainwash" that took place upon CD's
birth courtesy of SONY. I think you are a bit sensitive to this, although I
can assure you there were any number of technical folk who were happy to
dring the cool aid, as noted below:

It was buried by the press and by engineering types like yourself....and
flowers planted on it. Funny thing happened though. The ground heaved,
and up she came again.....not quite her old self, but living and
breathing. What's not to marvel over/do a story about?


Press = marketing releases = marketing folk, whom you don't want to be
associated with
Engineering types = sales support engineers = those who try to snow the
customer/press in support of the marketing types

I am happy to say I know you were not among either group.

Gee, sounds like a zombie movie to me! Where's my nerf gun
bag of tube socks?


:-)

Left them on campus, did you?



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"Harry Lavo" wrote in message

"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...
"Harry Lavo" wrote in message


That's a reasonable position, Dick. All I am saying she
is well positioned to judge as opposed to many other of
us. I just found it another in an interesting string of
anecdotes the pickup in this market over the last
five or so years. She struck me as a reasonably
well-positioned source.


I question the logic. The management of a single retail
store or a small retail chain is basically just one
small data point.


Agreed to the single point, but this does happen to be
the largest music retailer in NYC.....not exactly podunk,
Iowa.


So what? The NYC area is an important market, but it is only a tiny
fraction of the US market.

Furthermore, anybody whose making money selling a
certain kind of product is obviously biased.


J&R sells everything electronic, everything music,
everything photo, everything kitchen, every.....man,
that's a lot of biases!


At this point vinyl is a sort of an exclusive product for them. Most of
their competition wisely abandoned it decades ago.

Let's face it, only a miniscule percentage of all
retailers of media or audio electronics even bother with
vinyl any more.


More and more every year...even Barnes and Noble, about
as conservative a music retailer as there is, is
experimenting. And I daresay there are many more doing
so today than ten years ago.


But nothing at all like they were doing 30 years ago.

Reality is a series of ups and downs, with the
current numbers appearing to be highly anomalous.

RIAA vinyl sales (millions of units):

1991 29.4

1992 13.5

1993 10.6

1994 17.8

1995 25.1

1996 36.8

1997 33.3

1998 34.0

1999 31.8

2000 27.7

2001 27.4

2002 20.5

2003 21.7

2004 19.2

2005 14.2

2006 15.7

2007 22.9

2008 56.7


Certainly is improbably....after all, "Perfect Sound
Forever" was supposed to do in vinyl.


You mean Harry that you haven't noticed that the CD knocked vinyl from 100%
of the consumer recording marketplace to less than 0.4%?


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On Dec 10, 6:42=A0am, "Harry Lavo" wrote:
"Dick Pierce" wrote in message
...
Harry Lavo wrote:


J&R sells everything electronic, everything music, everything photo,
everything kitchen, every.....man,


So? How is that relevant?


Because she has no apparent commercial reason to be biased towards vinyl =

and
against other forms of music and machines to retrieve it, which she also
sells.


Oh, come now. A reporter calls her up wanting to write a story about
the vinyl "resurgence." Do you really think she's going to talk about
how much better and more popular CDs are? How does it help J&R's
overall business if she talks the reporter out of doing the story? If
the NYT is going to write about vinyl, she wants to use that as a
platform to promote the impression that J&R is where all the kool kids
go to get theirs.

And in a few years' time, when the NYT decides to write a story about
whether CD is dead yet, she'll be happy to tell that same reporter
that it's not, at least not her her store=97and I bet she doesn't even
mention vinyl.

That doesn't mean anything she says is wrong, and most of what she
says sounds pretty plausible to me. But unbiased? Please.

bob



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On Dec 10, 9:44=A0am, "Arny Krueger" wrote:

Reality is a series of ups and downs, with the
current numbers appearing to be highly anomalous.

RIAA vinyl sales (millions of units):

1991 29.4

..
..
..
No, Arny, those are dollar values, not units shipped. Units shipped
bounced around in the high 2 millions in the last half of the 1990s,
then declined monotonically in this decade until 2007. The 2008 figure
matches the 1999 figure, 2.9 million units.

bob

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"bob" wrote in message

On Dec 10, 9:44=A0am, "Arny Krueger"
wrote:

Reality is a series of ups and downs, with the
current numbers appearing to be highly anomalous.

RIAA vinyl sales (millions of units):

1991 29.4

.
.
.
No, Arny, those are dollar values, not units shipped.
Units shipped bounced around in the high 2 millions in
the last half of the 1990s, then declined monotonically
in this decade until 2007. The 2008 figure matches the
1999 figure, 2.9 million units.


Right. My apologies. The table of information was first put into a post that
somehow never got posted on RAHE. When I cut and pasted the data to a new
post from the lost post in my sent folder, the headings got scrambled.

Here is the correct information for LPs (millions of units).

1991 4.8

1992 2.3

1993 1.2

1994 1.9

1995 2.2

1996 2.9

1997 2.7

1998 3.4

1999 2.9

2000 2.2

2001 2.3

2002 1.7

2003 1.5

2004 1.4

2005 1.0

2006 0.9

2007 1.3

2008 2.9

What we see is several cycles of boom and bust with local minimums in 1993
and 2006. Sales on the order of the boomlet in 2008 were previously
achieved in 1991 and 1997. The sales data for the LP in the past 20 years
has been up and down and generally noisy. It is hard to find a reliable
trend.

The total number of recordings sold rose far more steadily from 801 million
in 1991 to 1,852 million in 2008. Thus LP market share has generally
trended downward from miniscule to very miniscule.


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Keith Keith is offline
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Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

Jenn wrote:
In article ,
"Harry Lavo" wrote:

snip
Yes, the largest music retailer in the largest city in the country.
Anyone who has visited the store knows that shelf space is at a premium.
J&R wouldn't give an inch of space to any product that they didn't think
was going to sell. Their job is to make money. The same is true, of
course, for all of the companies that are making LPs, including the
"majors". If there was no money in it, there would be no LPs, no CDs,
no bottles of Coke.

The present thread is, IMV, a very tired argument. Some people would
like to buy some LPs. In the view of some here, that makes them "vinyl
bigots". Oh well. The space that the largest music retail chain (brick
and mortar) on the west coast devotes to new and used LPs is further
testimony that there is a market for the product, and that market has
grown.


Well hopefully you don't equate the label "vinylphile" with "vinyl
bigot", at least in my usage. Thermophiles are attracted to heat,
vinylphiles are attracted to vinyl sound, no more, no less. That's all
that -philic means.

My point was that vinyl is a niche market and has been for some time,
and due to the myriad factors discussed previously, will continue to be
a niche market. And it appears that CD is headed that way as well.
Like markets for any vintage product, vinyl sales will likely continue
around some low baseline level for the forseeable future. But minor
oscillations around an essentially zero baseline shouldn't be seen as
indicative of any resurgence unless the 2009 data is clearly shown as an
inflection point. Something that will require several additional data
points. For example, compare the vinyl sales trend from 1993 to 1996 below:

1993 1.2M

1994 1.9M

1995 2.2M

1996 2.9M

Looks familiar no? From 1993 to 2009, vinyl sales have oscillated
between 0.9M and 3.4M, the same range they inhabit now. That's not a
new "story", just indicative of the nature of niche markets.

While I don't, personally, mourn the passing of vinyl from the
mainstream (although I too listen to LP's of music not available on CD,
I don't buy any new albums), I certainly will mourn CD's passage, and it
appears that demise is also inevitable. But so be it, I'll continue on
in the niche world undaunted :-)

Keith


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Arny Krueger Arny Krueger is offline
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Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

"Jenn" wrote in message

In article ,
"Harry Lavo" wrote:


I question the logic. The management of a single retail
store or a small retail chain is basically just one
small data point.


Agreed to the single point, but this does happen to be
the largest music retailer in NYC.....not exactly
podunk, Iowa.


Not exactly proof of a trend or even support for such a claim.

Yes, the largest music retailer in the largest city in
the country.


The largest music retailer in the US is iTunes.

http://gizmodo.com/375816/apple-conf...ion-songs-sold

"Apple's just confirmed the morning's news on them being the number one
music retailer in the US."

I have it on good authority that iTunes sells no vinyl. ;-) Something about
it being technically impossible to download LPs...

The largest music store in NYC is the Virgin Music Store on Union Squa

http://www.broadwayworld.com/article... ore_20090218

The article says that when Virgin closed down their Times Square Store,
their Union Square store became the largest in NTC.

Therefore your claims about J&R are completely falisifed, and there no
reason to answer any false suppositions based on the idea that J&R are "The
largest music retailer in the US".

The present thread is, IMV, a very tired argument.


Of course. I've shown that every once in a while sales of LPs spike up, and
then they settle down again.

Some people would like to buy some LPs.


There is no problem with people liking to buy LPs.

The problem is false suppositions based on false claims.

In the view of some
here, that makes them "vinyl bigots".


No, it makes people who base false claims on false data look like they are
very passionate, but also wrong.



  #35   Report Post  
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Harry Lavo Harry Lavo is offline
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Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...
"Harry Lavo" wrote in message

"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...
"Harry Lavo" wrote in message


That's a reasonable position, Dick. All I am saying she
is well positioned to judge as opposed to many other of
us. I just found it another in an interesting string of
anecdotes the pickup in this market over the last
five or so years. She struck me as a reasonably
well-positioned source.


I question the logic. The management of a single retail
store or a small retail chain is basically just one
small data point.


Agreed to the single point, but this does happen to be
the largest music retailer in NYC.....not exactly podunk,
Iowa.


So what? The NYC area is an important market, but it is only a tiny
fraction of the US market.


It and the two California cities are the trendsetters in the US.


Furthermore, anybody whose making money selling a
certain kind of product is obviously biased.


J&R sells everything electronic, everything music,
everything photo, everything kitchen, every.....man,
that's a lot of biases!


At this point vinyl is a sort of an exclusive product for them. Most of
their competition wisely abandoned it decades ago.


And your factual basis for this is......? It has a reputation for being one
of the better vinyl markets in the country....new and used.


Let's face it, only a miniscule percentage of all
retailers of media or audio electronics even bother with
vinyl any more.


More and more every year...even Barnes and Noble, about
as conservative a music retailer as there is, is
experimenting. And I daresay there are many more doing
so today than ten years ago.


But nothing at all like they were doing 30 years ago.


Did I say they were doing that? Arguing off the point.


Reality is a series of ups and downs, with the
current numbers appearing to be highly anomalous.

RIAA vinyl sales (millions of units):

1991 29.4

1992 13.5

1993 10.6

1994 17.8

1995 25.1

1996 36.8

1997 33.3

1998 34.0

1999 31.8

2000 27.7

2001 27.4

2002 20.5

2003 21.7

2004 19.2

2005 14.2

2006 15.7

2007 22.9

2008 56.7


We've chatted here many times about the accuracy (or lack thereof) of the
RIAA numbers. Even so, let's look at them.

We can probably agree that 1993, ten years after introduction of CD,
represented the low point for vinyl, both in sales and in distribution.
After that, it appears we've had four broad patterns:

* A sharp rise in sales from 1993 to 1996 representing compound growth of
50% per year. This coincided with the rise of catalog mail-order companies
such as Music Direct and Audio Advisor, and the concurrent rise of
audiophile vinyl through these specialized distribution channels.

* A broad plateau from 1997 until 2000-2001 at 30.0 +/- 10%, while CD sales
peaked. This most likely reflected a mature audiophile vinyl market.

* A substantial decline from 2001 until 2005 at an annual compound rate of -
9.7%. This coincided with similar overall decline of the total music market
for "hard product" as computer downloading (both illegal and legal) and Home
Theatre gained prominence. CY2001 was peak sales year for CD's, if I recall
(or maybe it was 2000). During this decline bricks and mortar retailers
(particularly the smaller ones) as well as audio retailers (who also handled
audiophile recordings) went out of business and bigger chains retrenched and
reduced their floorspace for music. Vinyl being a minority product if it
was distributed at all was among the first to go and the decline in audio
retailers definitely hurt audiophile vinyl sales.

* An increase since 2005 at a compound annual rate of 41.5% due to....what
we are arguing about.

I would suggest that this hardly suggest a moribund market for vinyl. Now
that catalog and internet distributors assure easy purchase even of niche
products, industry changes in technology and distribution no longer affect
sales as severely as in the past. So long as a substantial portion of the
market for well-recorded audio continues to eschew the complexities of tying
musical servers into their audio systems, conditions are ripe for continued
rise of vinyl with audiophiles forming a base and new young users
discovering the medium as an alternative to CD (which they've already ruled
passe').



Certainly is improbably....after all, "Perfect Sound
Forever" was supposed to do in vinyl.


You mean Harry that you haven't noticed that the CD knocked vinyl from
100%
of the consumer recording marketplace to less than 0.4%?


Yep, and McDonald's continues to make the best hamburgers in the US, right?
Just look at their market share. What does that have to do with the rise of
Red Robin and other premium hamburger chains?




  #36   Report Post  
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Harry Lavo Harry Lavo is offline
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Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

"Arny Krueger" wrote in message
...
"bob" wrote in message

On Dec 10, 9:44=A0am, "Arny Krueger"
wrote:

Reality is a series of ups and downs, with the
current numbers appearing to be highly anomalous.

RIAA vinyl sales (millions of units):

1991 29.4

.
.
.
No, Arny, those are dollar values, not units shipped.
Units shipped bounced around in the high 2 millions in
the last half of the 1990s, then declined monotonically
in this decade until 2007. The 2008 figure matches the
1999 figure, 2.9 million units.


Right. My apologies. The table of information was first put into a post
that
somehow never got posted on RAHE. When I cut and pasted the data to a new
post from the lost post in my sent folder, the headings got scrambled.

Here is the correct information for LPs (millions of units).

1991 4.8

1992 2.3

1993 1.2

1994 1.9

1995 2.2

1996 2.9

1997 2.7

1998 3.4

1999 2.9

2000 2.2

2001 2.3

2002 1.7

2003 1.5

2004 1.4

2005 1.0

2006 0.9

2007 1.3

2008 2.9

What we see is several cycles of boom and bust with local minimums in 1993
and 2006. Sales on the order of the boomlet in 2008 were previously
achieved in 1991 and 1997. The sales data for the LP in the past 20 years
has been up and down and generally noisy. It is hard to find a reliable
trend.

The total number of recordings sold rose far more steadily from 801
million
in 1991 to 1,852 million in 2008. Thus LP market share has generally
trended downward from miniscule to very miniscule.


I've just written a post to your previous post that I think explains the ups
and downs. It helps to think hard about the numbers, rather than just
reporting them.


  #37   Report Post  
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Jenn[_2_] Jenn[_2_] is offline
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Posts: 2,752
Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

In article ,
"Arny Krueger" wrote:

"Jenn" wrote in message

In article ,
"Harry Lavo" wrote:


I question the logic. The management of a single retail
store or a small retail chain is basically just one
small data point.


Agreed to the single point, but this does happen to be
the largest music retailer in NYC.....not exactly
podunk, Iowa.


Not exactly proof of a trend or even support for such a claim.


You've messed up the attributions; I didn't write what you're replying
to above.


Yes, the largest music retailer in the largest city in
the country.


The largest music retailer in the US is iTunes.

http://gizmodo.com/375816/apple-conf...-with-four-bil
lion-songs-sold

"Apple's just confirmed the morning's news on them being the number one
music retailer in the US."

I have it on good authority that iTunes sells no vinyl. ;-) Something about
it being technically impossible to download LPs...

The largest music store in NYC is the Virgin Music Store on Union Squa

http://www.broadwayworld.com/article...Biggest_Sale_i
n_Music_Retail_History_Starting_Thursday_at_Times_ Square_Store_20090218

The article says that when Virgin closed down their Times Square Store,
their Union Square store became the largest in NTC.


No, it doesn't say that at all. Please check the article.


Therefore your claims about J&R are completely falisifed, and there no
reason to answer any false suppositions based on the idea that J&R are "The
largest music retailer in the US".


I thought that it was clear that we were discussing brick and mortar
stores. And again, it is you made a false claim concerning Virgin.


The present thread is, IMV, a very tired argument.


Of course. I've shown that every once in a while sales of LPs spike up, and
then they settle down again.

Some people would like to buy some LPs.


There is no problem with people liking to buy LPs.

The problem is false suppositions based on false claims.


IIRC, the claim is that LP sales are up. Clearly, they are.


In the view of some
here, that makes them "vinyl bigots".


No, it makes people who base false claims on false data look like they are
very passionate, but also wrong.


Then you shouldn't call people "vinyl bigots" because they like to buy
some LPs. Seems reasonable, doesn't it?

  #38   Report Post  
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bob bob is offline
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Posts: 670
Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

On Dec 10, 1:04=A0pm, "Arny Krueger" wrote:

What we see is several cycles of boom and bust with local minimums in 199=

3
and 2006. =A0 Sales on the order of the boomlet in 2008 were previously
achieved in 1991 and 1997. =A0The sales data for the LP in the past 20 ye=

ars
has been up and down and generally noisy. It is hard to find a reliable
trend.


Actually, I think there's pretty clear story here. After the
introduction of CD, vinyl went into a decline, bottoming out in 1993.
Then we have a little boomlet through the rest of the decade, another
depression, and now we have the *second* vinyl revival. To me, this
data doesn't look particularly noisy. But it does show that we are not
at A Uniquely Momentous Moment in the History of Audio Reproduction.

The total number of recordings sold rose far more steadily from 801 milli=

on
in 1991 to 1,852 million in 2008. =A0Thus LP market share has generally
trended downward from miniscule to very miniscule.


This is misleading, because downloads are predominantly single tracks,
not albums, so comparing units over time is apples-to-oranges. Figure
10 singles per album, and there's clearly been a decline in album
sales over the past decade.

bob
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bob bob is offline
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Posts: 670
Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

On Dec 10, 3:48=A0pm, "Harry Lavo" wrote:

We can probably agree that 1993, ten years after introduction of CD,
represented the low point for vinyl, both in sales and in distribution.
After that, it appears we've had four broad patterns:

* A sharp rise in sales from 1993 to 1996 representing compound growth of
50% per year. =A0This coincided with the rise of catalog mail-order compa=

nies
such as Music Direct and Audio Advisor, and the concurrent rise of
audiophile vinyl through these specialized distribution channels.

* A broad plateau from 1997 until 2000-2001 at 30.0 +/- 10%, while CD sal=

es
peaked. =A0This most likely reflected a mature audiophile vinyl market.

* A substantial decline from 2001 until 2005 at an annual compound rate o=

f -
9.7%. =A0This coincided with similar overall decline of the total music m=

arket
for "hard product" as computer downloading (both illegal and legal) and H=

ome
Theatre gained prominence. =A0CY2001 was peak sales year for CD's, if I r=

ecall
(or maybe it was 2000). =A0During this decline bricks and mortar retailer=

s
(particularly the smaller ones) as well as audio retailers (who also hand=

led
audiophile recordings) went out of business and bigger chains retrenched =

and
reduced their floorspace for music. =A0Vinyl being a minority product if =

it
was distributed at all was among the first to go and the decline in audio
retailers definitely hurt audiophile vinyl sales.

* An increase since 2005 at a compound annual rate of 41.5% due to....wha=

t
we are arguing about.


No, no, no. You're assuming that the minuscule audiophile market is
responsible for any of this. It isn't. Anyone paying attention to the
culture over the last two decades could see that the prime mover of
the vinyl market was the DJ/dance phenomenon. That's why vinyl sales
grew in the 1990s. The availability of digital tools for that market
may have contributed to the drought of the past decade.

As for the very recent increase (which started in 2007, not 2005, if
you're going to use RIAA numbers), if the people buying records at J&R
are also buying their turntables at J&R, they aren't audiophiles.
While J&R does sell Music Halls, the overwhelming majority of its
sales is cheap plastic with USB ports. I'm not knocking it, but it's
not audiophile gear by any stretch of the imagination.

bob

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Steven Sullivan Steven Sullivan is offline
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Default Vinyl's Comeback - featured NYTimes article

bob wrote:
On Dec 10, 6:42=A0am, "Harry Lavo" wrote:
"Dick Pierce" wrote in message

And in a few years' time, when the NYT decides to write a story about
whether CD is dead yet, she'll be happy to tell that same reporter
that it's not, at least not her her store=97and I bet she doesn't even
mention vinyl.


That doesn't mean anything she says is wrong, and most of what she
says sounds pretty plausible to me. But unbiased? Please.


bob


The NY Times has been reporting the imminent comeback of vinyl since at
least 1994

http://www.nytimes.com/1994/12/08/ar...for-vinyl.html


We need an experiment -- start selling LPs with just CD-sized cover art.
If it's mainly about the sound, sales shouldn't slump much.

;


--
-S
We have it in our power to begin the world over again - Thomas Paine

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