On May 13, 7:58*am, Smitty Two wrote:
In article ,
*"William Sommerwerck" wrote:
After you know there is a goat behind door #3 *and are given
a chance to guess again, there is a 50% chance the car is
behind door #1 and a 50% chance the car if behind door #2.
Change your choice or not, you have a 50% *chance of being
right.
This is not correct. I explained it in a previous post. Like this...
Because you will have initially selected the wrong door 2/3 of the time
(right?) it follows that 2/3 of the time the good prize will be behind one
of the two other doors. The host will /always/ select a door with a goat,
therefore, you should switch, because there's a 2/3 chance the other door
will have the good prize.
Here is a link to a good visual representation:
http://math.ucr.edu/~jdp/Monty_Hall/Monty_Hall.html
I learned something today -- thanks!
For people who learn inductively, try this demo:
http://www.curiouser.co.uk/monty/montygame.htm
Does not work properly on Firefox, use IE.