Futurology and Madam Olga
Posted by Bob on April 25, 2010 at 6:00 am
"I have said repeatedly that Futurology has nothing to do with the future. That is a result of Mantra Thinking: Why is information produced? Futurology is entirely based on what TODAY’s editors and foundations want to see happen and what today’s readers want to read about.
The greatest combination of scientific and social knowledge, genius,
and good sense in the middle of the eighteenth century was Benjamin
Franklin. He invented all the basic terms we use for electricity,
battery, positive and negative and others. He was in at the beginning
of the force which would transform the new century.
Franklin also said that electricity was a study of a phenomenon which
should be known. He added that the one thing he was sure of was that
it would never have any practical use. He said that right up until he
died in 1790.
Not unusually, Franklin had an eye for the future EXCEPT in the area
in which he was expert. This is so common I consider it to be a rule,
whose few exceptions prove the rule.
An expert has an exact idea where his field is and where it is going.
Sudden changes, like the development of practical chemical batteries
and alternating current generation, catch them by surprise right in
the middle of their theorizing about how things will progress. Edison
died an opponent of AC.
Bill Gates flatly predicted that we would NEVER need more than a
megawatt in a home computer. That’s the wrong exact number but I don’t
want to try to find the quote again.
You can tell when a science fiction book was written while reading it.
You can tell when a Futurology book was written when you read it. You
can tell when a history book was written when you read it. That should
tell you how much these writers about the future know about the real
future.
But remember, unlike most writers, these are people who get published
and who get paid. Their information is PRODUCED. They are paid because
they are experts on the field as it is NOW, They appeal to readers who
read NOW.
We see Experts as totally out of the class of fortunetellers at the
fair because the Experts really do know a lot. But when it comes to
the future, they are in exactly the same business. The Crystal Ball in
the tent tells you what sounds reasonable to you. It tells you what
you want to hear. It gives dire warnings about things you already
understand.
That is exactly what the Experts do when they turn to the Future.
Only mavericks and heretics have ever been right about what is to
come."
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