[Carey Carlan]

Ron Capik wrote in news:XqSdncQ0dq_JzkjQnZ2dnUVZ_q-
:

OK, try this: blow the game up to 100 doors. Your chance of picking
the winning door on the first try is 1 out of 100. Stick with that
choice and each time a zonk is revealed the chance of the prize being
in the remaining group increases. When you get down to two doors the
chance of the prize being behind the other door is 99 out of 100.
The chance of your first pick being correct is still 1 out of 100.

Here's the simple answer that I can understand:

"An even simpler solution is to reason that switching loses if and only if
the player initially picks the car, which happens with probability 1/3, so
switching must win with probability 2/3"

Eureka! That finally makes sense. And yes, everyone was trying to tell me
that.