[Ron Capik[_3_]]

On 5/18/2011 8:52 AM, Arny Krueger wrote:
"Randy wrote in message
m
On 05/14/2011 06:48 AM, Arny Krueger wrote:
wrote in message


Declaring that there is no connection between the two
situations is the source of the poster's error. Monty
Hall knew if the player was correct or not, and so the
player's choice of the door in the first round
influenced the selection of the goat door. The graphic
helps you understand that there are still three
scenarios once a goat door has been revealed.

I get it now.

I think, several years ago when I originally saw this, I
argued as vehemently as you, Arny. It is extremely
counter-intuitive, which goes to show intuition isn't
always right!

In my studies of this item, I found a statement that about 10% of
*everybody* never gets it, regardless of their intelligence or education.

That suggests to me that some people learn things about problem solving that
keep them from seeing certain solutions. The trick is to not do that, or if
you do, somehow redirect how you approach these things.


However, to complicate matters the setup isn't always
win, zonk, zonk. Sometimes it's big win, medium win,
zonk, or big win, medium win, small win. One doesn't
always know the range of values behind the doors.
Did the host reveal the lowest value or not?
[YMMV]

Later...
Ron Capik
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