another puzzler
On Tue, 17 May 2011 21:29:45 -0500, "David"
wrote:
"philicorda" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 17 May 2011 20:05:34 +0000, Carey Carlan wrote:
spamtrap1888 wrote in
:
Just as in flipping coins.
Getting 5 heads in a row is 1/32.
But getting the 5th head after already getting 4 is still
1/2.
The big difference: In the Monty Hall problem there is only
one "coin
flip". Only one random choice is made -- the first choice of a
door. In
the coin flip situation, there are five coin flips, five
random
choices.
Now, in contrast, if the car and remaining goats were randomly
shuffled
after each goat door was revealed, then the situation would be
different. But in the MHP problem the car does not move.
Still trying to get my head around this.
How would shuffling unknown values affect my choice? If I
didn't know
before and you shuffle the choices, it's still a random choice
on my
part.
The host acts as a leak of information. It might help to imagine
an
alternate game, where the host does not know the contents of the
doors,
and the game is void if the host reveals the car. This version
puts you
back to 50/50 when the host reveals a goat, whether you switch
doors or
not.
***
Not true. When the host reveals a goat whether he guessed or knew
it was there makes absolutely no difference. You should still
switch doors.
David
If the host does not know, he might quite as easily reveal the car.
You then can't win it. Do you guarantee yourself 2/3 odds by switching
then? No. If the host reveals a goat by chance, the odds do indeed
drop to 50/50.
d
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