On 05/14/2011 06:48 AM, Arny Krueger wrote:
wrote in message
Declaring that there is no connection between the two
situations is the source of the poster's error. Monty
Hall knew if the player was correct or not, and so the
player's choice of the door in the first round
influenced the selection of the goat door. The graphic
helps you understand that there are still three scenarios
once a goat door has been revealed.
I get it now.
I think, several years ago when I originally saw this, I
argued as vehemently as you, Arny. It is extremely counter-intuitive,
which goes to show intuition isn't always right!
--
Randy Yates % "Watching all the days go by...
Digital Signal Labs % Who are you and who am I?"
% 'Mission (A World Record)',
http://www.digitalsignallabs.com % *A New World Record*, ELO