another puzzler
spamtrap1888 wrote in
:
Just as in flipping coins.
Getting 5 heads in a row is 1/32.
But getting the 5th head after already getting 4 is still 1/2.
The big difference: In the Monty Hall problem there is only one "coin
flip". Only one random choice is made -- the first choice of a door.
In the coin flip situation, there are five coin flips, five random
choices.
Now, in contrast, if the car and remaining goats were randomly
shuffled after each goat door was revealed, then the situation would
be different. But in the MHP problem the car does not move.
Still trying to get my head around this.
How would shuffling unknown values affect my choice? If I didn't know
before and you shuffle the choices, it's still a random choice on my part.
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