"ScottW" wrote in message
news:YqbRe.99627$Ep.64584@lakeread02...

"Clyde Slick" wrote in message
...

"ScottW" wrote in message
news:EdaRe.99623$Ep.5498@lakeread02...

"Clyde Slick" wrote in message
...



You just said earlier "WHERE ANYONE EVER HEARD A DIFFERENCE"

Come on Art... a perfectly random trial will have half the participants
over 50%.
One coming in at 81% one time doesn't sound like its outside the
expected
distribution for random responses of 15 participants.

Bad work, you fiind one person who can hear, and fourteen
who can't, test them, then disregard the result of that one, for
the deficiencies of the other fourteen.

Back to school you ole fart. Enroll in probability 101

Look at it this way. Test the same guy 15 times.
He just might do very well one of those 15 times.
Was his hearing better that one time than all the others?

That is not the way to look at it.
That is one person, he is unique.
The question is whether he heard differences.

Its really just a matter of binary probability.
Give someone enough tries and they will get a decent
percentage right. Most tests are done to 90%
or 95% confidence. That still means that 1 of 10
or 1 of 20 times the results will be a false positive.
So you can see 1 positive subject out of 15 subjects
could very well be due to chance.

sure, but chances are very substantial that one person heard differences and
fourteen did not.
Just cause differences are there, doesn't mean that everyone
has the capacity to recognize them.

chances are one out of fifty that any one person has at least a 132 IQ.

chances are pretty good that at least one person in a group of fifty has
an IQ of 132.

but those are two different issues.


He must be tested again and the odds
of him succeeding again due to chance go to 1 in 100
or 1 in 400.
Now thats proof.


Not everyone is equal.

Never said they were.






If we knew the number of trials we could figure it out exactly but
reality is...
one positive trial doesn't prove anything, even one 100% correct.


It proves it for that one person.

Not true. We can actually expect one or even 2 persons to get
lucky in a group of 15 with a 90% confidence test. Its the odds.
Let him repeat the test. If he is truly gifted he should
be able to repeat. If not... then it was probably random chance or
luck.


even with one run of tests the odds are very substantial
that it was not chance.



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