[bob]

On Dec 10, 3:48=A0pm, "Harry Lavo" wrote:

We can probably agree that 1993, ten years after introduction of CD,
represented the low point for vinyl, both in sales and in distribution.
After that, it appears we've had four broad patterns:

* A sharp rise in sales from 1993 to 1996 representing compound growth of
50% per year. =A0This coincided with the rise of catalog mail-order compa=
nies
such as Music Direct and Audio Advisor, and the concurrent rise of
audiophile vinyl through these specialized distribution channels.

* A broad plateau from 1997 until 2000-2001 at 30.0 +/- 10%, while CD sal=
es
peaked. =A0This most likely reflected a mature audiophile vinyl market.

* A substantial decline from 2001 until 2005 at an annual compound rate o=
f -
9.7%. =A0This coincided with similar overall decline of the total music m=
arket
for "hard product" as computer downloading (both illegal and legal) and H=
ome
Theatre gained prominence. =A0CY2001 was peak sales year for CD's, if I r=
ecall
(or maybe it was 2000). =A0During this decline bricks and mortar retailer=
s
(particularly the smaller ones) as well as audio retailers (who also hand=
led
audiophile recordings) went out of business and bigger chains retrenched =
and
reduced their floorspace for music. =A0Vinyl being a minority product if =
it
was distributed at all was among the first to go and the decline in audio
retailers definitely hurt audiophile vinyl sales.

* An increase since 2005 at a compound annual rate of 41.5% due to....wha=
t
we are arguing about.

No, no, no. You're assuming that the minuscule audiophile market is
responsible for any of this. It isn't. Anyone paying attention to the
culture over the last two decades could see that the prime mover of
the vinyl market was the DJ/dance phenomenon. That's why vinyl sales
grew in the 1990s. The availability of digital tools for that market
may have contributed to the drought of the past decade.

As for the very recent increase (which started in 2007, not 2005, if
you're going to use RIAA numbers), if the people buying records at J&R
are also buying their turntables at J&R, they aren't audiophiles.
While J&R does sell Music Halls, the overwhelming majority of its
sales is cheap plastic with USB ports. I'm not knocking it, but it's
not audiophile gear by any stretch of the imagination.

bob